TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Poor Rangers vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BetBoom Teamof Poor Rangers, BetBoom Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$208,746
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$244,636

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $208,746 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4f8a…8a18backed Poor Rangers24c19,358$4,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,674.071618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.18per pick37cpaid-54.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Poor Rangers21c18,755$4,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,008.5171143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed BetBoom Team77c15,848$12,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,594.2424153.1%128 W · 113 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed BetBoom Team77c12,923$9,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,993.0356955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed BetBoom Team78c11,872$9,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,621.9943344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed Poor Rangers22c10,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20047646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a01…c89ebacked Poor Rangers23c9,077$2,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,087.7528251.8%146 W · 136 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Poor Rangers23c8,888$2,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,044.2415951.6%82 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed BetBoom Team77c8,431$6,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,939.1112259.8%73 W · 49 L+11.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Poor Rangers8c7,150$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.4247650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Poor Rangers22c5,847$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,293.571,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Poor Rangers22c5,792$1,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,273.221,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Poor Rangers22c5,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10089741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed BetBoom Team78c4,870$3,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073.8136248.6%176 W · 186 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Poor Rangers22c4,790$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.861,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed BetBoom Team78c4,213$3,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.515848.1%76 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed BetBoom Team78c4,000$3,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88049455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Poor Rangers23c3,594$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.821,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed BetBoom Team75c3,500$2,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87569644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked BetBoom Team79c3,497$2,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.4595342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked BetBoom Team78c3,227$2,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.9435951.3%184 W · 175 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed BetBoom Team78c3,181$2,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.2735151.3%180 W · 171 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5952…8a5ebacked BetBoom Team79c2,900$2,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.69643.8%42 W · 54 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc156…f76cbacked Poor Rangers24c2,696$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.2916547.9%79 W · 86 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed BetBoom Team76c2,500$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60020767.1%139 W · 68 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed BetBoom Team79c2,311$1,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.2731248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked BetBoom Team76c2,136$1,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.6456542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Poor Rangers19c2,110$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.168649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ebe…5e6fbacked Poor Rangers22c2,100$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46525752.1%134 W · 123 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x948a…d1a4backed Poor Rangers24c2,083$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50024255%133 W · 109 L+14.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3cf…a5d4backed BetBoom Team78c2,051$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.286663.6%42 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed BetBoom Team77c2,000$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46089440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed BetBoom Team77c2,000$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46027153.5%145 W · 126 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Poor Rangers1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958c…a328backed Poor Rangers21c1,983$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.4228347%133 W · 150 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Poor Rangers23c1,953$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.0958744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Poor Rangers23c1,875$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.2514515.2%22 W · 123 L-16.5wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked BetBoom Team78c1,818$1,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.2585851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Poor Rangers21c1,528$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.335737%132 W · 225 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1de…21f5backed Poor Rangers23c1,500$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34530452.3%159 W · 145 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed Poor Rangers22c1,500$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33045352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Poor Rangers22c1,455$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.951,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked BetBoom Team78c1,421$1,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.5830155.5%167 W · 134 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30da…a11dbacked Poor Rangers23c1,304$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006031.7%19 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-35%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8a5…26a1backed BetBoom Team78c1,274$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.0211154.1%60 W · 51 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfc92…5667backed Poor Rangers25c1,200$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002920.7%6 W · 23 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-60.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked BetBoom Team79c1,172$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.1433867.8%229 W · 109 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21f2…aeb7backed BetBoom Team78c1,100$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2421020%2 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-68.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xac89…3783backed BetBoom Team78c1,045$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.981833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed Poor Rangers22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22045457.5%261 W · 193 L+39.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaf52…efdfbacked Poor Rangers23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23021558.6%126 W · 89 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Poor Rangers2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2037811.1%42 W · 336 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed Poor Rangers22c999.98$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22033453%177 W · 157 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked BetBoom Team77c996.14$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.6992056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked BetBoom Team78c897$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.3486659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Poor Rangers22c888$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.3650749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2217…1660backed Poor Rangers26c880$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.12653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6478…c969backed BetBoom Team78c870$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.42040%8 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-39.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed BetBoom Team78c829$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.3825248.8%123 W · 129 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d46…3e2dbacked BetBoom Team76c800$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1923141.9%13 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba06…8024backed BetBoom Team75c797.4$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.3515950.3%80 W · 79 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Poor Rangers22c792.87$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.431,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Poor Rangers20c747$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.430336.6%111 W · 192 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a77…e59dbacked Poor Rangers7c724.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.122031.8%70 W · 150 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed BetBoom Team78c704.54$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.5491553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked BetBoom Team78c673.32$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.1312452.4%65 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82ff…64fbbacked BetBoom Team78c641.03$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.03757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa980…30a1backed Poor Rangers16c589$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.092339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked BetBoom Team78c550$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12133845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed BetBoom Team78c548$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.5641050.2%206 W · 204 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed BetBoom Team76c518$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.3288539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed BetBoom Team78c513.37$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.3748057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb36f…53d0backed BetBoom Team79c503.89$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.8920949.8%104 W · 105 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed BetBoom Team77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11556852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked BetBoom Team79c500$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10527060%162 W · 108 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Poor Rangers24c500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e12…e867backed BetBoom Team76c444.65$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.086633.3%22 W · 44 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-24.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe47d…7967backed BetBoom Team78c444$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.682040%8 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-39.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed BetBoom Team79c443.04$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.042657.7%15 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed BetBoom Team79c435.33$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed BetBoom Team78c412.82$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.8272154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked BetBoom Team75c410.78$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.351,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Poor Rangers21c403.21$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.6170236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked Poor Rangers25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10031936.7%117 W · 202 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd3…3d7abacked BetBoom Team78c400$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8829047.9%139 W · 151 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29ee…a16fbacked Poor Rangers4c370.69$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.773737.8%14 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-26.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b1…1b71backed BetBoom Team78c344.87$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.876741.8%28 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbe…1f4abacked BetBoom Team78c334.46$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.469365.6%61 W · 32 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed BetBoom Team77c330$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.953758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Poor Rangers22c318.18$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7057735%202 W · 375 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked BetBoom Team76c312.9$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.4896645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa72a…5685backed BetBoom Team76c307.66$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.8413645.6%62 W · 74 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed BetBoom Team75c300$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7596245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd676…104cbacked BetBoom Team78c300$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665961%36 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…a5edbacked Poor Rangers21c263.12$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2640644.6%181 W · 225 L+0.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed BetBoom Team77c260$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.83243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-27.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ea8…0491backed BetBoom Team77c260$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.824041.3%99 W · 141 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x824b…8386backed BetBoom Team78c256.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4115848.1%76 W · 82 L-13.8wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-21.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x15d1…ccfebacked BetBoom Team79c250$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.554659.7%326 W · 220 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a1…d6ecbacked BetBoom Team77c250$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.514452.1%75 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.