TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Federico Cina

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hugo Gastonof Hugo Gaston, Federico Cina
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$63,396
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$70,536

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,396 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Federico Cina48c7,629$3,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,644.528,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Hugo Gaston45c4,435$1,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,451.233,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Hugo Gaston53c4,083$2,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,932.384,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe6a9…e35abacked Federico Cina42c3,271$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,375.199558.9%56 W · 39 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6982…a165backed Hugo Gaston70c2,839$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.8362956.9%358 W · 271 L+0.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Hugo Gaston68c2,758$1,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.9452152.2%272 W · 249 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2f…37ddbacked Federico Cina24c2,572$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.3814933.6%50 W · 99 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Federico Cina57c2,179$1,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.263,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Hugo Gaston43c1,971$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.39580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+43.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Federico Cina27c1,922$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.5911,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Hugo Gaston44c1,505$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.5668935%241 W · 448 L+9.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Federico Cina58c1,358$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.654,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Federico Cina56c1,246$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.351,95943.7%857 W · 1,102 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6759…95a7backed Federico Cina16c1,206$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1939736.1%35 W · 62 L+7.0wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Hugo Gaston76c1,144$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.754,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5803…3f3fbacked Hugo Gaston69c1,077$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.6785348.9%417 W · 436 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Hugo Gaston62c1,000$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.19,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Hugo Gaston43c998.81$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.512,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Federico Cina32c982.06$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.718,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a18…61a0backed Federico Cina28c753.36$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.552155.3%288 W · 233 L+27.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Hugo Gaston71c708.81$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.8146453%246 W · 218 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Hugo Gaston53c644.43$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.654,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a34…51fabacked Federico Cina10c635.96$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2922020%44 W · 176 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48ee…0db4backed Federico Cina55c631.49$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35054547.9%261 W · 284 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Federico Cina23c537.82$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251,56640%627 W · 939 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x521c…f4aabacked Federico Cina57c526.3$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9936848.4%178 W · 190 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Hugo Gaston64c461.97$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.091,83153%971 W · 860 L-45.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Hugo Gaston44c454.46$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.51,14941.3%474 W · 675 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Federico Cina37c406.74$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.784,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Hugo Gaston45c405.27$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.97,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Hugo Gaston51c395.42$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.851,62652.7%857 W · 769 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe611…2970backed Hugo Gaston57c353.26$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.2620055%110 W · 90 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Federico Cina26c348.44$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.648,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Federico Cina55c328.89$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.891,03150.3%519 W · 512 L+40.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Federico Cina28c326.18$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.142,76647.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60b6…eb2bbacked Hugo Gaston49c308.91$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.5417442.5%74 W · 100 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Hugo Gaston59c298.28$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.169824.5%24 W · 74 L-16.0wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-58.9%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Hugo Gaston42c266.67$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.675,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa205…d809backed Hugo Gaston60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10010146.5%47 W · 54 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-15.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Hugo Gaston42c246.98$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.361,68845.4%766 W · 922 L-10.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf970…f7f6backed Federico Cina13c236$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.162,48535.9%893 W · 1,592 L-28.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Hugo Gaston45c232.34$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.112,24742.7%960 W · 1,287 L+33.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ce7…3150backed Hugo Gaston45c214.71$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.0939149.1%192 W · 199 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3705…9677backed Hugo Gaston47c212.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.2713029.2%38 W · 92 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Federico Cina34c208.72$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7092145.2%416 W · 505 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x23df…640abacked Federico Cina38c208.5$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2347857.9%277 W · 201 L+24.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c5c…91fcbacked Federico Cina58c206.9$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12044751.7%231 W · 216 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ac6…e020backed Federico Cina57c203$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.5834761.1%212 W · 135 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Hugo Gaston64c199.17$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.444,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0612…559abacked Federico Cina56c192$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.5238952.2%203 W · 186 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Hugo Gaston55c191.47$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.561,76752.1%920 W · 847 L-2.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Hugo Gaston67c182.19$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.956,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Federico Cina35c172.99$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5542359.1%250 W · 173 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Hugo Gaston70c172.97$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.766,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Hugo Gaston43c172$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.047,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed Federico Cina56c163.5$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.5673748%354 W · 383 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1a…e943backed Federico Cina54c161.56$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8721524.7%53 W · 162 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c26…d474backed Federico Cina31c161.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5088935.2%313 W · 576 L+1.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Hugo Gaston51c159.14$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.81,34949.8%672 W · 677 L-6.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3ee4…ed67backed Hugo Gaston45c158$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.928237.9%107 W · 175 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Federico Cina37c151.8$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.52,04453.8%1,100 W · 944 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x411e…72f0backed Hugo Gaston77c151.09$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7515762.4%98 W · 59 L-8.1wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Federico Cina31c144.71$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.621,42944.2%631 W · 798 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9d0…2a3abacked Federico Cina24c144.64$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3516437.8%62 W · 102 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-15%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Hugo Gaston43c136.81$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.651,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xffef…dabfbacked Federico Cina56c129$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2415754.8%86 W · 71 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked Hugo Gaston66c128.47$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.681,79546.6%837 W · 958 L+20.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Federico Cina56c120.81$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.651,67850.8%852 W · 826 L+30.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe99…506bbacked Hugo Gaston45c111.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.1167852.1%353 W · 325 L-2.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bd2…f868backed Federico Cina58c110$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.86165.6%40 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Federico Cina52c107$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.514,92138.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L-20.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0a…ea32backed Federico Cina16c106.32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.543618.3%80 W · 356 L-21.4wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ed2…0ddabacked Federico Cina56c102.52$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4133152.6%174 W · 157 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Federico Cina56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Federico Cina24c99.62$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.031,22823.1%284 W · 944 L-164.0wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-47%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x8ad5…ccdebacked Hugo Gaston45c94.04$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.7255032.7%180 W · 370 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x130e…cc45backed Federico Cina18c89.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a92…6b00backed Federico Cina50c88.2$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.147651.9%247 W · 229 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Hugo Gaston45c86.96$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.831,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2326…b627backed Hugo Gaston70c86.62$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.421,25665.4%821 W · 435 L+11.4wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Federico Cina39c85$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.180341.8%336 W · 467 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Hugo Gaston42c85$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.31,82241%747 W · 1,075 L-30.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf83…915dbacked Federico Cina19c84.61$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7964537.2%240 W · 405 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x540f…92bebacked Federico Cina56c80.8$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.252548%12 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Federico Cina56c79.41$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4760446.7%282 W · 322 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Hugo Gaston75c78.65$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.622,04946.8%958 W · 1,091 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Federico Cina54c78$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.922,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Hugo Gaston69c72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.321,83759.2%1,088 W · 749 L+8.4wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8bb…7cefbacked Federico Cina38c65.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.636743.6%160 W · 207 L+0.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Hugo Gaston52c64.61$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.741,72552.2%901 W · 824 L-8.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Federico Cina52c63.27$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.95,41648.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L+14.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Federico Cina32c60.34$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.311,42128.6%407 W · 1,014 L+4.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Federico Cina35c59.74$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.911,63955.1%903 W · 736 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed3…274cbacked Federico Cina56c54.4$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4678847.5%374 W · 414 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa8…0b19backed Federico Cina56c50.08$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0460651.8%314 W · 292 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Hugo Gaston45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.583447.5%396 W · 438 L-2.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6195…388abacked Federico Cina56c48$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8818850%94 W · 94 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa25a…04b7backed Hugo Gaston43c46.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5111353.1%60 W · 53 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd173…bfaebacked Hugo Gaston45c46$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Federico Cina56c45.68$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5767848.4%328 W · 350 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.