TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Marlins vs. Nationals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Marlinsof Marlins, Nationals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$75,148
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$78,773

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,148 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe401…7b88backed Nationals33c4,789$1,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5589,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nationals18c4,708$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.872,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1b0…6eaebacked Nationals57c3,478$1,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,980.9932852.4%172 W · 156 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Nationals28c2,481$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.4554941%225 W · 324 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe768…9d43backed Marlins63c2,314$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.9319650.5%99 W · 97 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bc…e520backed Nationals53c2,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06027953.4%149 W · 130 L+16.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x03cd…9fdabacked Marlins47c1,991$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,055.2331346.6%146 W · 167 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Nationals13c1,937$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2611,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b5e…83f8backed Marlins45c1,406$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.1514747.6%70 W · 77 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Marlins46c1,319$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.3933554%181 W · 154 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d07…0351backed Nationals35c1,243$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.4412624.6%31 W · 95 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nationals53c1,211$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.61,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Marlins42c1,183$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.0395930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58d2…46e6backed Nationals55c1,059$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58130928.5%88 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Marlins45c1,013$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.8976456%428 W · 336 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Marlins62c1,007$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.511,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Marlins47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53093240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Marlins45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55017248.8%84 W · 88 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Nationals65c1,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6501,25052.2%653 W · 597 L-5.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Marlins47c999.98$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.993253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Marlins36c977.92$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.2197950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f9f…59f3backed Marlins70c932.64$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.293256.3%18 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-13.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3010…a27cbacked Nationals22c890$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.810719.6%21 W · 86 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Marlins47c852.44$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.441,01051.2%517 W · 493 L+36.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce37…b17bbacked Nationals61c800$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.941827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-34.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc8aa…ae12backed Nationals50c750$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.251030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1781…a0ecbacked Nationals26c707$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.6865549.3%323 W · 332 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67b5…9f1ebacked Marlins74c700$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.264250%21 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Marlins41c686.73$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.1731248.4%151 W · 161 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Nationals53c585.28$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3101,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Nationals29c569.24$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.631,20348.5%584 W · 619 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Marlins66c558.57$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.6368769.6%478 W · 209 L+60.4wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Marlins46c500$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2703,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked Marlins46c447.3$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.543240.6%13 W · 19 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-27.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b6f…3838backed Marlins41c444.94$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.7840547.4%192 W · 213 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc028…9349backed Nationals34c425.43$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.656046.7%28 W · 32 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59de…de22backed Nationals61c393.98$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.335145.1%23 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Nationals63c349.53$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.279740.4%322 W · 475 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc52…a021backed Nationals55c349.29$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.1120944%92 W · 117 L-11.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5696…b3aabacked Nationals53c330.19$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17525954.1%140 W · 119 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Nationals31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10039436%142 W · 252 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Nationals50c313.1$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.0296133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37bb…06e8backed Marlins37c267.92$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.7925550.6%129 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Nationals58c255$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.912451.6%64 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefaf…26a1backed Marlins43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.5623938.5%92 W · 147 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf96d…81f0backed Nationals52c232.1$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203231.3%10 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Nationals53c222$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.6695850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Marlins52c208.72$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.554,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca38…460bbacked Nationals40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8034051.2%174 W · 166 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb09…0f04backed Nationals21c192.83$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405429.6%16 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…5febbacked Marlins65c190.88$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.811353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nationals54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Nationals54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb091…2017backed Nationals66c180.46$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.4131254.5%170 W · 142 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Nationals45c177.71$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1532832.3%106 W · 222 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Nationals63c163.93$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.2868656.4%387 W · 299 L+38.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1df4…0fe8backed Nationals55c163.64$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908257.3%47 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-1.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2f8b…754fbacked Nationals26c162.01$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.16180%0 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd59…c3a5backed Marlins48c145.83$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.8313450%67 W · 67 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf16…d6e3backed Nationals59c132.29$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Marlins51c129.96$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.91,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf47d…f295backed Marlins57c129.24$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.772751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60ab…d681backed Nationals55c127.27$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7074356.9%423 W · 320 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Marlins74c126.55$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.91,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Nationals58c122.07$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.851334.5%177 W · 336 L-31.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3697…f189backed Marlins32c118.75$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.752825%7 W · 21 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cbb…2dd4backed Marlins43c116.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.28862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+34.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6979…d7a2backed Nationals51c113.73$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+21.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xca4a…338abacked Marlins45c112.98$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.98560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90b6…ba49backed Nationals54c111.11$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609158.2%53 W · 38 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd377…a0a5backed Marlins46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.717149.7%85 W · 86 L-10.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x38ba…92f7backed Marlins47c106.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.389246.7%43 W · 49 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Marlins42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9320…95ddbacked Nationals54c99.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5413555.6%75 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Marlins46c94.08$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.041,46644.1%647 W · 819 L+44.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5a9…e358backed Nationals55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501936.8%7 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-29.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x08fb…e7ddbacked Marlins69c90$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.716983.4%141 W · 28 L+20.1wins+0.12per pick72cpaid+16.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x17e0…1e88backed Nationals34c86.64$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.754441.2%224 W · 320 L-22.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a90…8218backed Marlins77c83.44$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1924751%126 W · 121 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc998…f060backed Nationals44c82.01$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.919554.7%52 W · 43 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Marlins42c81.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.731,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Marlins46c78.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.652,04553.8%1,100 W · 945 L+32.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23c3…ad95backed Marlins46c75.53$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.531729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-45.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5308…3221backed Marlins45c72$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.640352.4%211 W · 192 L+15.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb03…5ae4backed Marlins68c70$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2419566.2%129 W · 66 L+11.0wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf235…366dbacked Marlins48c69.69$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.241,07846.3%499 W · 579 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Nationals55c69.39$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.497841%32 W · 46 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabf6…129dbacked Marlins37c67.57$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5717037.6%64 W · 106 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Nationals61c65.12$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.841,20344.2%532 W · 671 L+20.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Marlins46c65$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.11,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ee…4c0bbacked Marlins48c59.72$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.12147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b35…a749backed Marlins71c59.32$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-84.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x102c…a24cbacked Nationals43c57.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9216251.9%84 W · 78 L-9.1wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9edb…7959backed Nationals54c57.43$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.011752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Nationals55c51$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0538047.6%181 W · 199 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3ee…373ebacked Nationals53c50.94$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2725452.8%134 W · 120 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Nationals38c50.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.251,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85a5…6721backed Nationals54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid+11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c54…cc1ebacked Nationals70c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid+1,156.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a9…609fbacked Marlins41c48.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.783844.7%17 W · 21 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick35cpaid-10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.