Stocks · resolved market
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x619ddab4de7a3ae03cb1cd43e7e7d29b8a86a04707eab60b6c921a347d8ce1a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $220,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $239,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $220,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 14,619$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.05 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…9297backed Yes | 11c | 6,609$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 5,034$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.81 | 1,443 | 8.8%127 W · 1,316 L | -53.1wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c44…28e9backed Yes | 5c | 4,403$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b16…a4fcbacked Yes | 1c | 4,187$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e7…b491backed Yes | 12c | 4,054$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1be9…a23abacked Yes | 12c | 2,356$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x792f…a740backed Yes | 2c | 2,310$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 2,079$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 75cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…b4f5backed Yes | 6c | 1,887$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0140…9510backed Yes | 6c | 1,716$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 14c | 1,471$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,469$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c9…52dabacked Yes | 7c | 1,410$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 4c | 1,230$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab8…93d1backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…a4dfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,109$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x593e…80aabacked Yes | 4c | 989.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfff8…9cd6backed Yes | 2c | 935.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 811.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 3c | 688.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 3c | 654.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ac…c2aabacked Yes | 6c | 642.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 7c | 620.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 4c | 600$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 11c | 539.68$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 519.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 9c | 365.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cf…67d9backed Yes | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes | 6c | 327.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3670…18e8backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 11c | 288.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.54per pick | 13cpaid | +533.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 11c | 230$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x388f…2a01backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d1…9599backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cc…67a6backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.