TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Nuggets: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Nuggetsof Raptors, Nuggets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,858

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,858 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Raptors35c1,881$661 inLost-$660.525,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6734…2e18backed Nuggets67c1,791$1,200 inWon+$591.467459.5%44 W · 30 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78bc…5616backed Raptors64c203.36$130 inLost-$130.1514745.6%67 W · 80 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Raptors57c187.66$107 inLost-$107.4526353.6%141 W · 122 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…4856backed Nuggets67c100$67 inWon+$3324151%123 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Raptors33c100$33 inLost-$3344747%210 W · 237 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2702…a103backed Nuggets54c85.19$46 inWon+$39.197753.2%41 W · 36 L+8.1wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Nuggets67c83.79$56 inWon+$27.6557444.1%253 W · 321 L-20.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9ea…706cbacked Nuggets52c78.85$41 inWon+$37.851442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaca…a0b6backed Raptors34c50.12$17 inLost-$17.043225%8 W · 24 L-7.9wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-52%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Raptors38c45$17 inLost-$17.11,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Nuggets62c34.35$21 inWon+$13.052,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Nuggets49c31.6$15 inWon+$16.221,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2996…73debacked Nuggets68c29.41$20 inWon+$9.4113744.5%61 W · 76 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4cf…9332backed Raptors53c21.67$11 inLost-$11.491233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-43.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa181…1b5cbacked Nuggets68c20.04$14 inWon+$6.41850%4 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick73cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.