NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffa681665423b2d37c965c415f3a4a27161a0528591c2459009122757b53c28e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,103 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Under | 52c | 30,000$15,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,400.15 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 48c | 18,568$8,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,921.9 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 9,956$4,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,745.67 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 48c | 1,994$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.24 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 52c | 1,926$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.33 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 48c | 1,875$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.99 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Over | 48c | 1,848$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Under | 52c | 1,844$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.12 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacae…6798backed Over | 48c | 1,066$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.71 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Under | 65c | 880$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Over | 33c | 853.54$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.15 | 208 | 37.5%78 W · 130 L | +38.2wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 35c | 792.95$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.53 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 5c | 548.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e8…50c2backed Under | 59c | 527.51$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.6 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 526$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.3 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 41c | 499.83$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.69 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 51c | 423.9$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.71 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 53c | 376.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.92 | 890 | 48.8%434 W · 456 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Over | 48c | 320$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.58 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under | 52c | 299.98$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.99 | 331 | 46.2%153 W · 178 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Under | 78c | 256.22$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -11.2wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 51c | 216.21$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.94 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5542…01cebacked Over | 48c | 190.91$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.64 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 653 | 49.9%326 W · 327 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1349…dc1fbacked Under | 54c | 170.37$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Under | 63c | 158$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.46 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 52c | 157.1$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7b…9ab9backed Under | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 274 | 62%170 W · 104 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Over | 46c | 150.15$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.07 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…9732backed Under | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf35e…f846backed Under | 56c | 140.59$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.59 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Under | 49c | 96.94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 192 | 45.3%87 W · 105 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…e82ebacked Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 48c | 87.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 648 | 44.8%290 W · 358 L | -32.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 29c | 79.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 34c | 79.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Under | 53c | 76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 672 | 48.8%328 W · 344 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc8…47d0backed Under | 50c | 56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 177 | 58.2%103 W · 74 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf12…cbd9backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf05f…91d5backed Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Over | 50c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 342 | 47.7%163 W · 179 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6276…7f2ebacked Under | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Over | 48c | 40.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -7.9wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -52%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb503…7552backed Under | 53c | 40.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 141 | 55.3%78 W · 63 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e8…2c0ebacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 231 | 45.9%106 W · 125 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…b39ebacked Under | 65c | 31.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Over | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 240 | 44.6%107 W · 133 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 223 | 36.8%82 W · 141 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7f…0ad6backed Under | 53c | 28.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…99cfbacked Under | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…6dd8backed Over | 49c | 23.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccd…e52cbacked Under | 63c | 17.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Nuggets won
- Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- RJ Barrett: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Raptors vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Under won
- Scottie Barnes: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.