NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4c167cf0d7ec9e2c44f7d524ba0eb16720eec1739b53794b7f2b353f4090aa7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 46c | 14,328$6,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,741.16 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Under | 53c | 6,776$3,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,200.24 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 47c | 6,300$2,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,339 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Over | 53c | 6,177$3,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,273.81 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 53c | 6,105$3,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,235.14 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 54c | 3,889$2,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,090.18 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 46c | 3,273$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.38 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Over | 52c | 2,810$1,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,461.32 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 48c | 1,823$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.89 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 53c | 1,562$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.83 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 54c | 1,516$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.38 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 48c | 1,333$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.44 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Over | 52c | 1,250$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 261 | 49.4%129 W · 132 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 54c | 1,087$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.53 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 409 | 47.7%195 W · 214 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf630…7e65backed Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 291 | 49.5%144 W · 147 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 854.21$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.06 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 31c | 684.3$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.4 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 68c | 676.19$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.38 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 49c | 520.37$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.12 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f52…c525backed Over | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 141 | 52.5%74 W · 67 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 55c | 426$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.3 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb145…df85backed Over | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 45c | 311.11$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.11 | 521 | 46.6%243 W · 278 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 47c | 265.18$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.41 | 602 | 50.5%304 W · 298 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Over | 49c | 244.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 455 | 42.4%193 W · 262 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae9d…d417backed Under | 45c | 236.67$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.17 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 232.27$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.07 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Under | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 434 | 47.5%206 W · 228 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362a…8683backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 47c | 199.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 171.32$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 45c | 150.11$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.56 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 53c | 149.38$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.89 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 50c | 125.25$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.98 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Under | 48c | 115.81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.22 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc8…47d0backed Over | 52c | 87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Over | 46c | 85.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 390 | 55.6%217 W · 173 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 271 | 38.7%105 W · 166 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 47c | 76.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f2…d2d8backed Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 596 | 50.3%300 W · 296 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Under | 45c | 63.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | +29.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 54c | 62.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 514 | 38.7%199 W · 315 L | -29.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 223 | 36.8%82 W · 141 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 48c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 47c | 45.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…d31abacked Over | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 216 | 40.3%87 W · 129 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…8977backed Under | 62c | 44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 623 | 47.7%297 W · 326 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfffb…5f95backed Under | 47c | 42.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 241 | 50.2%121 W · 120 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Over | 55c | 41.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 423 | 52.5%222 W · 201 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 53c | 38.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 45c | 36.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f53…acb1backed Over | 55c | 35.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 54c | 33.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cd…2ddcbacked Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 48c | 30.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…9a46backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ae…3615backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…1fe3backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb0…bec2backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…4648backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…48c6backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da9…2c15backed Under | 51c | 28.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c48…7d6fbacked Over | 55c | 28.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e59…c102backed Under | 49c | 25.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 49c | 25.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 369 | 49.6%183 W · 186 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a3…8593backed Over | 55c | 24.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…5ca7backed Over | 55c | 24.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1529…ba87backed Over | 55c | 18.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Nuggets won
- Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- RJ Barrett: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Raptors vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Under won
- Scottie Barnes: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.