NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77c80b2d936884ca71973d64236721eb21775a25c8d93f6fb8444a02da371018
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 436.39$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.73 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 56c | 258.57$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.8 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 50c | 215.35$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.25 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 44c | 207.57$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.24 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 206.68$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.34 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 382 | 42.9%164 W · 218 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Over | 45c | 179.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.84 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Under | 15c | 149.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 208 | 37.5%78 W · 130 L | +38.2wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 35c | 147.65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 30c | 129.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 236 | 57.2%135 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Under | 32c | 88.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Under | 41c | 87.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Over | 58c | 86.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed Over | 66c | 75.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb896…ac39backed Over | 61c | 65.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2830…c47bbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 42c | 57.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 33c | 55.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Under | 34c | 39.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 693 | 37.8%262 W · 431 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed Over | 58c | 35.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1160…b054backed Over | 65c | 31.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da9…2c15backed Under | 42c | 31.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9786…b15cbacked Over | 55c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Under | 36c | 27.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 58c | 22.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 50c | 21.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 514 | 38.7%199 W · 315 L | -29.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75a6…c7a1backed Over | 52c | 21.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +52%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 52c | 20.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…99cfbacked Over | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Nuggets won
- Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- RJ Barrett: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Raptors vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Under won
- Scottie Barnes: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.