NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16e2171da9de36e70e883aafc407d7bafee6a3ff609c8510b9597a90c672a0c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,082 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cdc…b83fbacked Over | 57c | 16,644$9,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,193.26 | 209 | 48.8%102 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd2…1c0cbacked Under | 49c | 12,192$5,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,974 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 44c | 12,131$5,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,337.64 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…96d3backed Over | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,899.99 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1e…bb68backed Over | 53c | 5,658$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,657.51 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Under | 44c | 5,002$2,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,201.02 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 2,474$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.03 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 45c | 1,413$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.8 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 59c | 954.52$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.42 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Over | 52c | 935$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 56c | 629.34$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.39 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 50c | 601.79$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 604 | 44.2%267 W · 337 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 43c | 570.68$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.96 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf469…dcaabacked Over | 56c | 493.64$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.2 | 221 | 54.8%121 W · 100 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 41c | 471.98$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.9 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Over | 55c | 365.06$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.14 | 653 | 49.9%326 W · 327 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 53c | 216.21$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.03 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e5…df30backed Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa10b…9885backed Under | 46c | 188.1$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.56 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Over | 57c | 179.65$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.15 | 313 | 54.3%170 W · 143 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 53c | 172.5$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.07 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 43c | 165$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.95 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 47c | 155.22$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.95 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 207 | 44%91 W · 116 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 101.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…9baebacked Over | 56c | 97.59$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 54c | 87.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed Over | 51c | 76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Over | 49c | 67.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Under | 47c | 63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 223 | 36.8%82 W · 141 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Over | 55c | 60.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ae…3615backed Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…9bb2backed Under | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…882abacked Over | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da3…1b45backed Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 222 | 49.5%110 W · 112 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 46c | 58.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e31…5e8ebacked Under | 48c | 56.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed Over | 50c | 52.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 49.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 342 | 47.7%163 W · 179 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 144 | 43.1%62 W · 82 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Over | 30c | 37.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 47c | 36.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 47c | 35.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 289 | 49.1%142 W · 147 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b2…2e80backed Under | 45c | 33.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8277…e2e5backed Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f61…1c3abacked Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 29.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4c13backed Under | 49c | 29.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca3…483abacked Over | 56c | 25.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…1e6bbacked Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 121 | 61.2%74 W · 47 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…b22ebacked Over | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 47c | 24.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9651…0488backed Over | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed Over | 58c | 22.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 198 | 51%101 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Nuggets won
- Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- RJ Barrett: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Raptors vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Under won
- Scottie Barnes: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.