NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5ac43d0c2a7eab8c73b4c3906993f4f68e6303c179624c3584d4e29f847aad4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,266 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Over | 52c | 7,502$3,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,600.99 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 48c | 5,911$2,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,837.28 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Over | 59c | 3,208$1,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,315.14 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 62c | 2,252$1,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,398.91 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 59c | 1,553$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.72 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 41c | 1,377$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.05 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 55c | 1,350$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.79 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 42c | 1,303$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.31 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 41c | 1,293$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.1 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 1,124$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.15 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf630…7e65backed Over | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 291 | 49.5%144 W · 147 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 48c | 794.69$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.82 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Over | 59c | 534.63$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.2 | 261 | 49.4%129 W · 132 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 47c | 506.75$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.21 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 48c | 470.89$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.03 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Over | 48c | 199.12$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.68 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 41c | 187$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.67 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 41c | 179.16$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.79 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 57c | 168.82$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.59 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed Over | 62c | 160.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 141 | 56.7%80 W · 61 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed Under | 48c | 138.83$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.64 | 213 | 57.7%123 W · 90 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 137$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.73 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1160…b054backed Over | 73c | 134.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 27c | 132.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…038ebacked Under | 39c | 98.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 61c | 93$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 44c | 86.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 447 | 47%210 W · 237 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 47c | 86.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 38c | 76.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Under | 48c | 69.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 672 | 48.8%328 W · 344 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Over | 60c | 65.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 435 | 43.4%189 W · 246 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Over | 63c | 56.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 269 | 56.1%151 W · 118 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb896…ac39backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 270 | 50%135 W · 135 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…cf7cbacked Under | 43c | 41.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Over | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +11.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Under | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 144 | 43.1%62 W · 82 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 41c | 38.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 342 | 47.7%163 W · 179 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Under | 28c | 37.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 41c | 35.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2d…cd74backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 123 | 64.2%79 W · 44 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Under | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 223 | 36.8%82 W · 141 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8be0…88a2backed Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 41c | 28.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…2870backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb351…5f41backed Under | 56c | 19.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Nuggets won
- Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- RJ Barrett: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Raptors vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Under won
- Scottie Barnes: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.