TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$128,936

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,936 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Under50c38,788$19,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,558.91,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Under50c28,127$14,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,118.581,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Over50c14,344$7,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,186.4131643.4%137 W · 179 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Over52c10,500$5,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,459.918153.1%43 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Over50c8,560$4,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,259.2237747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Over51c6,863$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,500.131,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c75…329abacked Over50c6,674$3,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,337.15750.9%29 W · 28 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over51c6,000$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,059.991,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over50c5,538$2,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,769.242,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42f1…bebdbacked Over51c3,921$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.634443.2%19 W · 25 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Over51c3,910$1,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,994.114245.8%65 W · 77 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over50c3,872$1,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,934.652,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over50c3,565$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800.152,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under49c3,495$1,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,773.469,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa307…8ea3backed Under49c2,610$1,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,331.120352.2%106 W · 97 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d61…303dbacked Over51c2,590$1,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32110556.2%59 W · 46 L+8.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+16.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xab65…4a03backed Over45c2,393$1,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.994647.8%22 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Over34c2,372$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.4328537.9%108 W · 177 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Under49c2,179$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,111.2324744.1%109 W · 138 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over49c2,062$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.714,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over46c1,949$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.368,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under50c1,735$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.944,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under55c1,604$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.922,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb307…be4abacked Over50c1,428$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71418842.6%80 W · 108 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Over50c1,327$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.330446.7%142 W · 162 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under48c1,188$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.694,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Under49c1,030$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.334855.2%192 W · 156 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over50c896.37$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.243,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc00…79f8backed Under57c826.77$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.8515240.8%62 W · 90 L-12.1wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xed45…3de8backed Over50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4007454.1%40 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Over50c789.27$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.461,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over50c784$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3926,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over17c737.77$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.352,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9102…89d6backed Under50c670.53$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.272050%10 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Under63c660$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.210239.2%40 W · 62 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…4856backed Over50c613.9$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.0524151%123 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe905…0efbbacked Under50c533.95$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.982665.4%17 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+20.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4fbc…8a18backed Under51c513.68$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.874445.5%20 W · 24 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-18.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under36c507.34$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.943,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Under49c500$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2551,19747.5%569 W · 628 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed Under49c410$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.123850.4%120 W · 118 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf429…969ebacked Under50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20033837.3%126 W · 212 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf469…dcaabacked Under50c365.48$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.7422154.8%121 W · 100 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec56…dd09backed Under50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15028348.8%138 W · 145 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Over51c294.11$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15063447.5%301 W · 333 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Under58c292.14$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.149546.3%44 W · 51 L-11.2wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-24.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe60c…d2e2backed Under49c286$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.8614145.4%64 W · 77 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Under50c253$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.577549.2%381 W · 394 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ca4…aa92backed Over51c205.88$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10511157.7%64 W · 47 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under49c202.01$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.031,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2db1…45e5backed Under50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10024849.6%123 W · 125 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Under52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3165349.9%326 W · 327 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over45c186.33$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.852,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over50c150.26$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.163,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb996…038cbacked Under50c146$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7313148.9%64 W · 67 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5016…ada1backed Under50c146$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7329352.9%155 W · 138 L+0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5818…39e2backed Under49c144$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.4413950.4%70 W · 69 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb81f…2fd6backed Under50c135$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.54443.2%19 W · 25 L-4.2wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Over42c123.81$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5291846.2%424 W · 494 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Over50c119.76$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8839943.1%172 W · 227 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08f1…705cbacked Under50c117$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.516245.1%73 W · 89 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over37c111.24$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.863,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Over48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5045445.4%206 W · 248 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Under48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5295548.5%463 W · 492 L-3.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over46c91.1$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.145,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x641f…049abacked Under50c90$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4518054.4%98 W · 82 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over49c82.27$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.313,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Under51c80.35$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6851438.7%199 W · 315 L-29.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x25c6…dcacbacked Under50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405942.4%25 W · 34 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Over50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4093145.8%426 W · 505 L-25.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Under50c72.62$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.3142352.5%222 W · 201 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x727d…c2e0backed Under51c69.25$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.936648.5%32 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Over51c65$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1559650.3%300 W · 296 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93a2…5181backed Over46c62.9$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7315038%57 W · 93 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0893…c760backed Under50c60.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.32263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+30.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Over49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.125138.6%97 W · 154 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb8a…8775backed Under67c59.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.91580%12 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+33.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Over49c51.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.221,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Over50c49.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.881,32249.9%660 W · 662 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc15…3a2ebacked Over50c48.18$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0914144.7%63 W · 78 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Over52c48.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2517758.2%103 W · 74 L+11.0wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under49c47$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.971,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8a4…78a2backed Under50c45$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.55152.9%27 W · 24 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x341b…b92cbacked Under51c43.29$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.218344.6%37 W · 46 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Under54c42.6$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6213950.4%70 W · 69 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Over43c42.58$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5287744.7%392 W · 485 L-1.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8725…d370backed Over50c42.12$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214942.9%21 W · 28 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbe2…5981backed Over49c41.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.474645.7%21 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2225…1838backed Under50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208652.3%45 W · 41 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0339…1394backed Under50c34$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1713045.4%59 W · 71 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Under50c32$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1636153.5%193 W · 168 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb800…6663backed Over47c32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.18825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-47.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe05f…1fe3backed Under50c31$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.520040%80 W · 120 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd25c…fe19backed Under50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1517652.3%92 W · 84 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x788c…4a44backed Under50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157546.7%35 W · 40 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c5…b613backed Under50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1520249%99 W · 103 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e3…b39ebacked Under55c29.15$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.222560%15 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73d6…09edbacked Under51c29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2110047%47 W · 53 L-8.4wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-16.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2dc8…47d0backed Over47c29$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.638342.2%35 W · 48 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…2877backed Over51c28.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.75633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.