TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Raptorsof Nuggets, Raptors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$584,344
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$598,074

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $584,344 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 210 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc2e7…be51backed Raptors55c302,001$165,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137,001.3410049%49 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Nuggets45c145,896$65,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,653.3266248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Nuggets47c45,114$21,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,203.521,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d3d…3165backed Raptors54c31,244$16,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,372.373129%9 W · 22 L-6.7wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-45.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Nuggets47c24,164$11,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,357.0831643.4%137 W · 179 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nuggets46c17,409$8,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,061.814,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Raptors53c15,000$7,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,0502240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Nuggets47c13,189$6,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,198.751,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Nuggets47c12,408$5,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,831.8228649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2c1…9fe2backed Nuggets46c11,340$5,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,216.47240.3%29 W · 43 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Nuggets47c10,638$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00033447.9%160 W · 174 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets46c9,468$4,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,359.569,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Raptors58c8,760$5,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,672.962,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Nuggets46c8,704$4,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,017.834,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Nuggets49c7,143$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5001,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Raptors52c7,000$3,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,359.991,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Nuggets47c6,392$2,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,998.574,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe80…0784backed Nuggets46c6,067$2,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7911020%2 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-56.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Nuggets47c5,945$2,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,794.1537747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa84…3dc0backed Nuggets48c5,542$2,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,660.16250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Nuggets46c5,088$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,340.489629.2%28 W · 68 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Raptors52c4,665$2,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,221.113,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Raptors54c4,240$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,960.151,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Nuggets48c4,167$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00026648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48e2…2a5fbacked Nuggets46c3,988$1,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,834.4817550.9%89 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbca…b7b7backed Nuggets47c3,982$1,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,871.5425049.2%123 W · 127 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Nuggets39c3,974$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,534.71,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24b3…a5a4backed Raptors52c3,810$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,810.3211249.1%55 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Raptors54c3,747$2,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,723.41,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe33f…eed7backed Nuggets48c3,696$1,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,774.073943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Nuggets46c3,471$1,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,596.4824942.2%105 W · 144 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aba…4961backed Raptors52c3,162$1,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,517.567150.7%36 W · 35 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Raptors51c2,715$1,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,328.132,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f6e…84b4backed Nuggets46c2,656$1,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,221.765349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Raptors52c2,605$1,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,250.251,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Nuggets47c2,326$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089.1365349.9%326 W · 327 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Nuggets46c2,321$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.031,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Raptors53c2,248$1,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.562,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57b1…4b99backed Nuggets49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010847.2%51 W · 57 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Nuggets46c1,957$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.222,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d01…ee3bbacked Raptors52c1,942$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.162100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+94.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe554…fa99backed Raptors52c1,865$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$895.22100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+94.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Raptors52c1,832$953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.362,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5502…cdc5backed Raptors52c1,735$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c4…a4f2backed Nuggets48c1,688$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.3812045%54 W · 66 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd26e…6d8dbacked Raptors52c1,664$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.49450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd48…d64fbacked Nuggets49c1,633$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.155354.7%29 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Nuggets48c1,610$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77338946%179 W · 210 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69ac…03e9backed Raptors54c1,552$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.497948.1%38 W · 41 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Raptors63c1,521$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.613,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Nuggets12c1,450$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.9583039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5741…fb99backed Raptors78c1,308$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.7210945.9%50 W · 59 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Raptors53c1,275$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.593,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Raptors54c1,212$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.6671654.1%387 W · 329 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…d83abacked Nuggets45c1,150$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.498747.1%41 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Nuggets18c1,098$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.6652230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Raptors54c1,087$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.898,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Nuggets47c1,050$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.554443%234 W · 310 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Raptors52c1,028$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.212,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4440…f8fdbacked Nuggets48c1,021$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4909952.5%52 W · 47 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nuggets45c1,015$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.755,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed Raptors52c999.99$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48023938.1%91 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Nuggets41c890.02$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.165,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Nuggets15c755.69$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.012,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Nuggets47c705.32$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.1742153%223 W · 198 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7f52…c525backed Nuggets47c638.3$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30014152.5%74 W · 67 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5e…94e9backed Nuggets46c600$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27422746.3%105 W · 122 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Nuggets48c565.11$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.682,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Nuggets50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25059140.8%241 W · 350 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Raptors61c479.34$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.943,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed Raptors52c461.54$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.5422953.7%123 W · 106 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Nuggets46c437.3$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc00…79f8backed Nuggets47c420$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.6615240.8%62 W · 90 L-12.1wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked Nuggets46c413.04$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19018748.1%90 W · 97 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x054b…afd5backed Nuggets49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020552.2%107 W · 98 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf469…dcaabacked Raptors52c400.4$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.1922154.8%121 W · 100 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7d5…d4d3backed Raptors52c390.19$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.295750.9%29 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Raptors53c376$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.721,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc58a…b8f8backed Nuggets46c364.81$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.8121550.2%108 W · 107 L-0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets46c362.65$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.826,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb920…0ee7backed Raptors73c344.34$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.343458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Raptors52c341.21$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.7287744.7%392 W · 485 L-1.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50e0…776ebacked Raptors53c340.6$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.088353%44 W · 39 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1019…d7cabacked Nuggets50c338.14$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.071729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-39.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Nuggets46c300$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13791148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b55…cde3backed Raptors54c277.78$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.788151.9%42 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Raptors52c266$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.6734851.7%180 W · 168 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Nuggets46c263.09$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.281,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Nuggets45c250$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.52,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Raptors53c238.54$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.1389048.8%434 W · 456 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a37…180cbacked Raptors54c227.25$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.43452.9%18 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf35…3fe7backed Raptors55c225.12$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.066653%35 W · 31 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Nuggets46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10029040.3%117 W · 173 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d26…6f74backed Raptors54c214.15$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.396553.8%35 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7634…1b96backed Raptors53c213.28$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.2824051.3%123 W · 117 L-0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Nuggets47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe11c…c7f7backed Raptors52c211.54$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.549260.9%56 W · 36 L+10.3wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+22.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3ede…6c27backed Raptors53c208.01$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.7645151.4%232 W · 219 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf15…bc03backed Raptors59c207.25$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.236845.6%31 W · 37 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Raptors54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9261957.5%356 W · 263 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.