MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x622e6ede684728ef54e05da3635903cdcd8c5e13d95a4aec3cb84a2ebb1aa56f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Over | 31c | 2,584$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,788.55 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 64c | 2,186$1,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,390.97 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 50c | 1,610$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.59 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 69c | 1,005$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.4 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 36c | 707.61$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.31 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 45c | 562.62$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.47 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 68c | 414.85$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.1 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 71c | 333.07$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.42 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Under | 70c | 314.32$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.02 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 68c | 264.71$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Under | 32c | 256.38$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.55 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 37c | 217.19$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.83 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 26c | 161.43$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Under | 70c | 138$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.41 | 158 | 48.7%77 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 74c | 133.46$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.76 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 66c | 121.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.86 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 64c | 118$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 35c | 117.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.14 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 36c | 113.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.51 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 78c | 103.32$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.47 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Over | 32c | 103.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.13 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 41c | 97.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 24c | 91.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.29 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 31c | 75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…5449backed Under | 69c | 72.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…2a53backed Under | 43c | 58.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 27c | 57.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 57.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 44c | 55.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Under | 44c | 55.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…effbbacked Under | 44c | 55.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Under | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 74c | 26.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 78c | 23.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5b…3b06backed Under | 64c | 19.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington NationalsPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.