TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Philadelphia Philliesof Washington Nationals, Philadelphia Phillies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,198
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,270

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,198 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals52c9,535$4,991 inLost-$4,990.6311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies48c6,076$2,912 inWon+$3,164.118,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals9c4,585$419 inLost-$418.6610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Philadelphia Phillies78c4,216$3,281 inWon+$935.728,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c8e…a316backed Washington Nationals25c2,000$500 inLost-$50022638.5%87 W · 139 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Philadelphia Phillies75c947.27$711 inWon+$236.2913649.3%67 W · 69 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+68.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7200…9299backed Philadelphia Phillies75c803.56$606 inWon+$197.825251.9%27 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Washington Nationals30c590.45$178 inLost-$177.793,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Philadelphia Phillies47c403$189 inWon+$213.594,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x287d…38febacked Washington Nationals17c338.18$57 inLost-$57.497126.8%19 W · 52 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies69c331.89$228 inWon+$103.8812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Philadelphia Phillies74c253.38$187 inWon+$65.8867453%357 W · 317 L+28.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Washington Nationals18c210.64$37 inLost-$37.4970737.6%266 W · 441 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Washington Nationals39c132.61$52 inLost-$51.542,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed Philadelphia Phillies52c130.79$68 inWon+$62.785862.1%36 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc846…c413backed Washington Nationals25c111$28 inLost-$27.7553950.6%273 W · 266 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Philadelphia Phillies73c102.86$75 inWon+$27.552,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Washington Nationals41c92.8$38 inLost-$37.975,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Washington Nationals29c75.94$22 inLost-$21.746,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Washington Nationals16c70.79$12 inLost-$11.611,03851.7%537 W · 501 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Washington Nationals50c70.47$35 inLost-$35.245,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x31e7…fe2abacked Washington Nationals53c62.26$33 inLost-$3316144.1%71 W · 90 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2160…4c78backed Washington Nationals30c57.5$17 inLost-$17.118056.3%45 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies72c55.32$40 inWon+$15.488,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Philadelphia Phillies73c42.82$31 inWon+$11.5974657.8%431 W · 315 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Washington Nationals28c41.86$12 inLost-$11.722,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd5b…3b06backed Philadelphia Phillies47c29.33$14 inWon+$15.438556.5%48 W · 37 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa05a…4635backed Philadelphia Phillies54c28.58$16 inWon+$13.0583053%440 W · 390 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xddfc…cd9ebacked Philadelphia Phillies74c27.73$21 inWon+$7.2116250.6%82 W · 80 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Philadelphia Phillies46c27.59$13 inWon+$14.91,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Philadelphia Phillies41c27.23$11 inWon+$16.071,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d43…f54ebacked Philadelphia Phillies74c25$19 inWon+$6.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40d6…9892backed Washington Nationals56c19.04$11 inLost-$10.5734451.5%177 W · 167 L-8.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x346f…cdf3backed Washington Nationals72c14.57$10 inLost-$10.49250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.