MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55fe69d5c18527ac1b5a38b779e46e2982fb4aa19267906e1b532afdbe94585e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Washington Nationals, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 76c | 5,468$4,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,129.89 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 2,771$1,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,291.69 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 2,723$1,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.6 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 25c | 2,686$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,016.76 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Washington Nationals | 32c | 1,629$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.56 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Washington Nationals | 29c | 1,622$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.12 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 67c | 808.3$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.91 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 675.28$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.64 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc908…2f61backed Washington Nationals | 69c | 434.78$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 70c | 383$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.9 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 288.46$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.96 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 279.85$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.95 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Philadelphia Phillies | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Philadelphia Phillies | 23c | 206.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.26 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Philadelphia Phillies | 68c | 202$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.88 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 202$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.22 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 196.07$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 177$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.51 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 151.84$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Philadelphia Phillies | 75c | 138.24$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 130.66$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.47 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Washington Nationals | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 75c | 105.64$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Washington Nationals | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Washington Nationals | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 94.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 91.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 91.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 83.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.31 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Washington Nationals | 34c | 82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 81.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Washington Nationals | 25c | 79.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Washington Nationals | 53c | 77.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Washington Nationals | 25c | 63.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 57.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Washington Nationals | 25c | 50.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 49.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Philadelphia Phillies | 29c | 49.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8087…6d7abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 70c | 47.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 46.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 46.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 44.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 44.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5b…3b06backed Philadelphia Phillies | 24c | 42.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Washington Nationals | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 38.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Philadelphia Phillies | 76c | 37.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Philadelphia Phillies | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 32.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 31.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 74c | 27.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db0…5b69backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 22.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -5.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -38%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 75c | 14.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 221 | 51.6%114 W · 107 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington NationalsPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.