MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5824eb90fef202283afae990f6e87a965412113bd3b4dc911934045c7bf419cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 9,053$4,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,358 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 41c | 8,361$3,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,932.97 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 52c | 8,075$4,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,889.53 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 59c | 5,000$2,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,950 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 59c | 1,950$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.5 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 42c | 1,831$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,061.69 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Over | 44c | 1,672$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.49 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Under | 56c | 1,518$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.99 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 41c | 1,330$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.92 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 59c | 1,320$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.8 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5b…3f6abacked Under | 77c | 530.87$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.77 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 23c | 530.87$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.77 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 30c | 528.29$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.34 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 59c | 445$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.55 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Under | 50c | 416$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 40c | 368.57$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.52 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 48c | 355.31$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.76 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Under | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 39c | 287.13$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.17 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 43c | 286.04$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.71 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 41c | 280$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.2 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 58c | 216.45$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.54 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 42c | 216.45$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.54 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 53c | 194.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.14 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 193.55$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.5 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 55c | 171.82$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 60c | 158.92$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 55c | 154.51$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 59c | 144.07$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 41c | 140$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 52c | 101.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…8254backed Under | 75c | 90$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 89 | 66.3%59 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 64c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed Under | 59c | 75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Under | 59c | 70.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 72c | 70.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 41c | 69.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Under | 54c | 63.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 46c | 61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117b…f017backed Under | 60c | 57.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5b…3b06backed Under | 46c | 57.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 38c | 55.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 73c | 55.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f33…addcbacked Over | 42c | 55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Under | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -11.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Under | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 56c | 46.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 27c | 43.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 57c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…2775backed Under | 61c | 36.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -6.9wins | -0.28per pick | 52cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Over | 42c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 41c | 34.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 60c | 32.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…8beebacked Over | 68c | 29.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 132 | 63.6%84 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 63c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Under | 65c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 42c | 28.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 49c | 21.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x786f…1dcdbacked Under | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6f76backed Under | 68c | 17.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington NationalsPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.