TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ninjas in Pyjamasof Team WE, Ninjas in Pyjamas
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$190,488
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$204,801

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $190,488 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 186 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfbca…3b1ebacked Ninjas in Pyjamas50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,000.0510535.2%37 W · 68 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe486…0c26backed Team WE0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102193.2%7 W · 212 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Team WE50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00054353.8%292 W · 251 L+32.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x05b2…a469backed Team WE24c8,526$2,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,048.71457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Team WE50c7,355$3,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,677.6727735.7%99 W · 178 L-12.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc36b…a540backed Team WE46c6,355$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,899.5931644.3%140 W · 176 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x882c…a26fbacked Team WE4c6,050$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2605733.3%19 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Ninjas in Pyjamas43c5,723$2,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,243.871,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1d4…38d6backed Team WE1c5,555$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.772072.9%6 W · 201 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-75.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4b7…3c8bbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas49c5,000$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,549.9911454.4%62 W · 52 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d36…68fdbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas59c4,962$2,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,039.8625751%131 W · 126 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Team WE57c4,000$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2803850%19 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29df…8ebcbacked Team WE51c4,000$2,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,056.8110133.7%34 W · 67 L-11.8wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x060d…1094backed Team WE9c4,000$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.520621.8%45 W · 161 L-18.1wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-50.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf022…1ae9backed Team WE6c3,249$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.843312.1%4 W · 29 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-32.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d69…7e98backed Team WE14c3,156$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.7918914.8%28 W · 161 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-39.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Ninjas in Pyjamas72c3,025$2,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.251,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Ninjas in Pyjamas50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5001,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97f2…d84fbacked Team WE46c2,285$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.513345.1%60 W · 73 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3af…aca1backed Team WE50c2,190$1,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,104.3212948.8%63 W · 66 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Ninjas in Pyjamas48c2,102$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.298648.8%42 W · 44 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Team WE46c2,073$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.3269041.3%285 W · 405 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Team WE34c2,014$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.8570443.9%309 W · 395 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe795…8caebacked Ninjas in Pyjamas64c1,996$1,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.3220354.7%111 W · 92 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x302d…6fe1backed Team WE51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c14…7bc1backed Team WE50c1,893$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.383464.7%22 W · 12 L+5.8wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+34.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x224b…8927backed Ninjas in Pyjamas48c1,803$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937.9942050.5%212 W · 208 L+27.9wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+9.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x00df…0d23backed Ninjas in Pyjamas72c1,747$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.329852%51 W · 47 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9a9…3ba9backed Team WE14c1,600$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22133845.3%153 W · 185 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0588…8f18backed Team WE9c1,530$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.825038%95 W · 155 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+25.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Ninjas in Pyjamas43c1,517$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.571,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Ninjas in Pyjamas49c1,464$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.631,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed Team WE2c1,417$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.341,47748.3%713 W · 764 L+45.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bf2…7706backed Ninjas in Pyjamas61c1,376$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.743946.2%18 W · 21 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Ninjas in Pyjamas43c1,298$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.6521740.1%87 W · 130 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Team WE36c1,230$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.8275342.5%320 W · 433 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Team WE52c1,202$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.1435243.2%152 W · 200 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb80d…0ac1backed Team WE40c1,150$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.6550547.7%241 W · 264 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08b3…48a9backed Ninjas in Pyjamas54c1,129$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.71,02148%490 W · 531 L+26.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Team WE46c1,061$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.9385046%391 W · 459 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Team WE49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49076953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d9f…787abacked Team WE42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42061045.2%276 W · 334 L+35.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x37bd…2a26backed Ninjas in Pyjamas50c880$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44064553.3%344 W · 301 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Ninjas in Pyjamas52c811.77$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.651,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4152…5d75backed Ninjas in Pyjamas46c800.19$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.12060%12 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+50.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcef0…f811backed Ninjas in Pyjamas47c800$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x237b…e373backed Team WE50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18c6…9634backed Team WE52c800$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4162231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-36.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x56fc…affbbacked Team WE44c776.99$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.4944751%228 W · 219 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Ninjas in Pyjamas44c748$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.881233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-47.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Team WE58c748$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.881,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team WE46c719.36$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.172,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x871e…6566backed Team WE54c638.93$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.587763.6%49 W · 28 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x868b…1eb0backed Team WE45c631.88$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.0410550.5%53 W · 52 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Team WE27c630.75$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.5250643.1%218 W · 288 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9a5…c602backed Team WE7c600$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4229927.8%83 W · 216 L-0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa60…556cbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas53c600$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28221848.6%106 W · 112 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc57…f5f4backed Ninjas in Pyjamas50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30016050.6%81 W · 79 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed Team WE52c600$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30940347.4%191 W · 212 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Team WE4c599.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,44713.3%192 W · 1,255 L-109.5wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd991…c161backed Team WE17c588.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10031855.7%177 W · 141 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65ac…2feebacked Team WE53c570.19$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9614751.7%76 W · 71 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Team WE6c533$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9966116.5%109 W · 552 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7daf…0ec8backed Ninjas in Pyjamas49c528.57$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.573046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe8c…9e9ebacked Ninjas in Pyjamas73c521.76$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.1617839.3%70 W · 108 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Ninjas in Pyjamas41c500$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29554129.9%162 W · 379 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c3b…e573backed Team WE43c500$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.34647.8%22 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Team WE56c500$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2801,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x91e8…f1abbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas59c498.81$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.81966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Team WE4c470$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8189810.7%96 W · 802 L+2.6wins0.00per pick10cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab8…a331backed Ninjas in Pyjamas50c463.26$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.26850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x469f…3d4fbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas46c434.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.7819640.3%79 W · 117 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed Team WE31c421.07$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.061,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed Team WE51c399.96$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.9828843.8%126 W · 162 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Ninjas in Pyjamas48c379$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.841,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1850…8903backed Team WE54c370.47$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004348.8%21 W · 22 L-6.8wins-0.16per pick65cpaid-22.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1173…1d74backed Team WE4c366.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1533040.3%133 W · 197 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f7c…5a30backed Team WE23c350$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2528942.6%123 W · 166 L+11.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd4e…1483backed Ninjas in Pyjamas58c345$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14530155.5%167 W · 134 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xabd6…ca90backed Ninjas in Pyjamas79c335.56$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9320764.3%133 W · 74 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Team WE30c323.33$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9729143.3%126 W · 165 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f76…6323backed Team WE10c320$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.621810.1%22 W · 196 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c1d…58fcbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas48c312.5$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.59147.3%43 W · 48 L-6.4wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x81a4…da1fbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas48c312.5$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.56839.7%27 W · 41 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Ninjas in Pyjamas49c311.84$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.3448448.6%235 W · 249 L+12.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas49c308.25$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.2530255.6%168 W · 134 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Team WE48c307.43$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.7650242.2%212 W · 290 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ee4…3485backed Team WE50c306.08$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15315854.4%86 W · 72 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Ninjas in Pyjamas50c304.32$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.161,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Ninjas in Pyjamas50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15048852%254 W · 234 L-2.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2386…1a2dbacked Team WE13c300$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388438.1%32 W · 52 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf353…b287backed Team WE8c278.32$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2723915.9%38 W · 201 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+53.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xada4…c344backed Team WE57c245.61$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14012655.6%70 W · 56 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6f84…202ebacked Ninjas in Pyjamas52c243.4$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.6895847.6%456 W · 502 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe49d…c3dbbacked Team WE36c236.5$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8663247.6%301 W · 331 L-17.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce16…d66fbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas45c212.24$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.7125639.5%101 W · 155 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Ninjas in Pyjamas46c209.6$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.212927.9%36 W · 93 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa170…47d8backed Team WE9c206.74$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x968f…2a1fbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas50c200.02$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.0122646.5%105 W · 121 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf91e…7e0bbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10070752.9%374 W · 333 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.