Champions League · resolved market
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63e720f384667a8d5ad6c7b11d5f9dd1b9778b5429063c34a60a74b3a99dc3e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Paris Saint-Germain FCof FC Bayern München, Paris Saint-Germain FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Bayern München | 2c | 35,462$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.54 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ea…ba53backed FC Bayern München | 2c | 3,405$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked FC Bayern München | 9c | 2,492$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9759…cb52backed FC Bayern München | 9c | 1,169$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed FC Bayern München | 7c | 1,064$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.48 | 297 | 46.5%138 W · 159 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed FC Bayern München | 7c | 885.71$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 723 | 35.5%257 W · 466 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed FC Bayern München | 8c | 753.69$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 120 | 36.7%44 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…0031backed FC Bayern München | 8c | 700$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed FC Bayern München | 6c | 697.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 236 | 37.3%88 W · 148 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c29…79b6backed FC Bayern München | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b4…7779backed FC Bayern München | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d4…8c7fbacked FC Bayern München | 7c | 364.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed FC Bayern München | 7c | 330.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed FC Bayern München | 7c | 326.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked FC Bayern München | 6c | 325$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 206 | 39.3%81 W · 125 L | +25.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed FC Bayern München | 7c | 300.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed FC Bayern München | 8c | 260$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b1…b470backed FC Bayern München | 9c | 220.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5909…2215backed FC Bayern München | 8c | 195.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1993…17c3backed FC Bayern München | 7c | 171.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed FC Bayern München | 14c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked FC Bayern München | 8c | 137$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 601 | 36.9%222 W · 379 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…82f2backed FC Bayern München | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…2623backed FC Bayern München | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -37%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f48…0e01backed FC Bayern München | 16c | 106.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)this page
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.