Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9f73f3161ac029fd70b8d2292c2375076c051d829f1284ced4a5db412f9ea7e

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: FC Bayern Münchenof Paris Saint-Germain FC, FC Bayern München
Resolved: Apr 28, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $193,431
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $214,813

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $193,431 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	16c	22,926$3,655 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,654.54	1,543	40.1%618 W · 925 L	-9.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	1c	20,787$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.17	56	53.6%30 W · 26 L	+3.2wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	0c	19,989$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	1c	15,167$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.35	66	43.9%29 W · 37 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9857…a505backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	0c	13,982$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	1c	11,075$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.43	50	42%21 W · 29 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fcd…f84fbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	13c	4,900$632 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$632.08	44	43.2%19 W · 25 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd87…ac38backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	12c	4,264$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	35cpaid	+20.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a4…d8b4backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	0c	2,760$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.94	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.11per pick	29cpaid	-74.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	49c	2,118$1,047 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,046.87	614	37.5%230 W · 384 L	-27.5wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf472…fd6ebacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	11c	1,942$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.8	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-60.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed FC Bayern München	60c	1,900$1,136 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$764	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+2.0wins	+0.13per pick	47cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	26c	1,796$473 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$472.59	435	37.9%165 W · 270 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	8c	1,727$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.37	297	46.5%138 W · 159 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	9c	1,165$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.67	54	33.3%18 W · 36 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabce…2f87backed FC Bayern München	48c	999.99$476 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$523.99	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	10c	945.98$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.6	968	37.4%362 W · 606 L	+31.4wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	11c	859.76$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.66	59	28.8%17 W · 42 L	+2.9wins	+0.05per pick	24cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc85f…15f8backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	64c	800$509 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$508.65	38	31.6%12 W · 26 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	40cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf009…43d0backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	14c	716.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62ff…5058backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	28c	702.5$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	7c	700$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.8	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-41%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ddc…e874backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	15c	672.04$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.38	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	9c	656.72$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.1	86	47.7%41 W · 45 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4791…07f8backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	20c	623.26$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33e6…0244backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	9c	555.56$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35d3…e506backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	10c	520.84$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	132	34.1%45 W · 87 L	+5.4wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8582…959fbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	13c	408.67$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.19per pick	36cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	12c	360.6$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.65	236	37.3%88 W · 148 L	-5.3wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-24%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf39d…a5e9backed FC Bayern München	42c	357.14$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$207.14	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-2.4wins	-0.11per pick	59cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	12c	329.8$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	267	43.8%117 W · 150 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab6b…521bbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	12c	302.68$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.36	40	27.5%11 W · 29 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	22cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x167c…a88bbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	9c	301$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.09	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x46e6…d4cdbacked FC Bayern München	50c	247$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.35	48	66.7%32 W · 16 L	+4.9wins	+0.10per pick	56cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	9c	232.59$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.93	47	46.8%22 W · 25 L	+2.7wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xafb2…0942backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	60c	226.75$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e3…4bf5backed FC Bayern München	40c	225$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee2a…729bbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+1.5wins	+0.12per pick	19cpaid	+64.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6684…2985backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	10c	198.02$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	36cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf19b…8082backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	29c	170$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.13	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe867…0905backed FC Bayern München	41c	122.44$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.44	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-3.0wins	-0.22per pick	43cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1276…0845backed FC Bayern München	41c	122.25$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.25	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.9wins	+0.37per pick	43cpaid	+133.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	10c	114.4$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.44	1,071	34.8%373 W · 698 L	-15.0wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf692…8655backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	10c	109.4$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.94	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+1.5wins	+0.09per pick	38cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	40c	104.89$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.63	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93ff…84d1backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	59c	90$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.1	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69e7…7cb7backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	62c	83$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.58	72	47.2%34 W · 38 L	-6.1wins	-0.08per pick	56cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x60a5…f52ebacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	15c	66.93$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.33	47	23.4%11 W · 36 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	31cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x67a9…e29ebacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	37c	53.79$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked FC Bayern München	40c	50$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-2.0wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1982…bc7bbacked FC Bayern München	76c	50$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.2	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+32.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe07d…895fbacked FC Bayern München	42c	47.64$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.64	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c8a…1a83backed FC Bayern München	55c	46.29$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.83	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb2c3…868cbacked FC Bayern München	47c	42.18$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.18	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.20per pick	47cpaid	+39.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3711…7339backed FC Bayern München	41c	38.88$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.13	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc1…4ff3backed FC Bayern München	40c	37.65$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.65	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	44cpaid	+38.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf05b…3c59backed FC Bayern München	41c	34.31$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.31	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a95…3be6backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	61c	33.95$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.85	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.15per pick	49cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa636…dfe9backed FC Bayern München	41c	31.76$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.76	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	49c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	73	42.5%31 W · 42 L	-4.2wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)this page
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5Over won
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Over won
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Over won
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5Over won
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)FC Bayern München won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event