Champions League · resolved market
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb5f53c76f85e74c194e0215e9d1dc38a5ae1721d41ebbdcd0583095cd07dd4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $210,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $227,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $210,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9857…a505backed Under | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 0c | 45,701$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a4…d8b4backed Under | 0c | 15,020$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 0c | 11,680$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 108 | 52.8%57 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 13c | 9,243$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.49 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 0c | 4,238$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 11c | 3,920$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.93 | 424 | 38%161 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 12c | 2,548$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.82 | 915 | 37.6%344 W · 571 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x840d…3708backed Under | 13c | 1,462$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.97 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 11c | 1,216$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.78 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked Under | 5c | 1,117$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba2…1650backed Under | 14c | 1,071$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6705…8184backed Under | 6c | 984.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…0c64backed Under | 4c | 975$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2393…d54dbacked Under | 11c | 847.8$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.26 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4520…e501backed Under | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…5ac3backed Under | 5c | 801.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471c…3b43backed Under | 13c | 753.85$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 12c | 618.86$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 8c | 595.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 236 | 37.3%88 W · 148 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0e…a1fabacked Under | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +53%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 12c | 581.01$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…de5dbacked Under | 17c | 572.24$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.28 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Under | 13c | 568.68$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.93 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Under | 13c | 507.69$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Under | 12c | 458.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51af…8720backed Under | 12c | 449.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Under | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…1df7backed Under | 19c | 398.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36d4…8c7fbacked Under | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 13c | 281.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 723 | 35.5%257 W · 466 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdab…e7f0backed Under | 7c | 276.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Under | 10c | 256.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa203…11bcbacked Under | 5c | 244.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 12c | 213.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 144 | 54.9%79 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 16c | 206.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 243 | 40.7%99 W · 144 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Under | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Under | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6a…26f7backed Under | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 15c | 156.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 13c | 138.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 382 | 53.9%206 W · 176 L | +21.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff5…50eabacked Under | 13c | 125.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 13c | 119.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 358 | 60.6%217 W · 141 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f23…4761backed Under | 16c | 107.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 12c | 106.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 297 | 46.5%138 W · 159 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Under | 14c | 105.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3a…610abacked Under | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f83…465dbacked Under | 12c | 94.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked Under | 14c | 91.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Under | 13c | 79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +9.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5this page
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.