South American Leagues · resolved market
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Santos FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6515766b34c70fefb0183291da3ada0501d909c82d972aeaf45e74d5cfe181f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 26c | 3,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.99 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Under | 72c | 1,628$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.51 | 200 | 36.5%73 W · 127 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 73c | 1,272$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.54 | 1,296 | 43%557 W · 739 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 18c | 887.1$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.92 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 6c | 884.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 16c | 871.75$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.29 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 74c | 266.7$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.15 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 74c | 256$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.56 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 74c | 216$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 198 | 41.9%83 W · 115 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 6c | 202.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1c…3347backed Over | 24c | 188.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 216 | 38.4%83 W · 133 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 25c | 165.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 1,945 | 51.3%998 W · 947 L | +40.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 16c | 160.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…b1bebacked Over | 20c | 147.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 10c | 117.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 2,519 | 39%982 W · 1,537 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 26c | 111.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 26c | 109$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…3876backed Under | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 73c | 85.19$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba28…fa8fbacked Over | 35c | 74.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 74c | 60.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 1,303 | 50.1%653 W · 650 L | -14.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf80…3259backed Under | 79c | 60.35$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 26c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 180 | 50%90 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…033ebacked Under | 57c | 42.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Under | 54c | 40.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 219 | 38.8%85 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 2,614 | 54.2%1,416 W · 1,198 L | +25.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Under | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e8…5e6bbacked Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c2…080bbacked Under | 75c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 75c | 13.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 632 | 61.2%387 W · 245 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Santos FC: O/U 3.5this page
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Santos FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Santos FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Santos FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Santos FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Santos FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Santos FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Santos FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- CR Vasco da Gama vs. Santos FC: Santos FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Spread: CR Vasco da Gama (-1.5)Santos FC won
- Spread: CR Vasco da Gama (-2.5)Santos FC won
- Spread: Santos FC (-1.5)Santos FC won
- Spread: Santos FC (-2.5)Santos FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.