NBA · resolved market
Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65ce578bc4ac9a6b5a2a3932d0cc216c90e750fad02331a3895d68d30b27b850
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,669 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7879…3653backed Yes | 5c | 3,876$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 159 | 52.8%84 W · 75 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x159a…d8dbbacked Yes | 31c | 828.98$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.08 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 27cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 69c | 634.28$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.97 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Yes | 29c | 333.36$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.87 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…7d01backed Yes | 35c | 282.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 68c | 207.65$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.58 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 59c | 183.48$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.33 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 69c | 174.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.29 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed No | 68c | 143.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 236 | 49.2%116 W · 120 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 69c | 120$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3a…5c97backed No | 61c | 117.23$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb1…7bd9backed Yes | 30c | 116.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 71c | 102.76$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked No | 69c | 85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 270 | 74.1%200 W · 70 L | +30.5wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +18%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8087…6d7abacked Yes | 43c | 78.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…e3c3backed Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 90 | 31.1%28 W · 62 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 59c | 53.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93e…96eabacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 129 | 49.6%64 W · 65 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…55a0backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed No | 70c | 33.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…2e70backed No | 70c | 29.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…abd4backed No | 72c | 25.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 487 | 51.7%252 W · 235 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x376d…bc1bbacked No | 67c | 22.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 98 | 69.4%68 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…d3dfbacked No | 66c | 21.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed No | 66c | 21.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 234 | 41.5%97 W · 137 L | +13.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 302 | 56.6%171 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 4.5this page
- Brandon Williams: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Dean Wade: Points O/U 5.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Evan Mobley: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Keon Ellis: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Mavericks vs. CavaliersMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 242.5Over won
- Max Christie: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- P.J. Washington: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-16.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-11.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.