NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x670b53f39300df27ddd4ed365c697728eab57adaacbfb94f0ebae878fe167c16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,558 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 7,068$3,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,436.57 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 51c | 3,140$1,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530.61 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Over | 51c | 2,500$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 54c | 1,431$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.8 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…f016backed Under | 54c | 1,290$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 140 | 59.3%83 W · 57 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 1,212$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.76 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Under | 64c | 781.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 36c | 748.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.36 | 268 | 39.2%105 W · 163 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 38c | 580$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.4 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 47c | 500.25$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.91 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 39c | 434$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.74 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 51c | 402.12$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.2 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 49c | 397.59$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.82 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Under | 59c | 345.76$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92de…87eebacked Over | 48c | 322.92$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.92 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 48c | 303.06$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.47 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 255.5$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.06 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…596dbacked Under | 64c | 234.51$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 167 | 49.1%82 W · 85 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed Over | 49c | 190.66$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.7 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 42c | 168.28$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a7…7916backed Over | 41c | 167.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.11 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 36c | 154.22$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.1 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Under | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 324 | 50.3%163 W · 161 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Over | 52c | 142.28$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.62 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 60c | 135$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.84 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…aa01backed Under | 56c | 129.28$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.77 | 384 | 64.3%247 W · 137 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Over | 11c | 105.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 208 | 37.5%78 W · 130 L | +38.2wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 52c | 103.14$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…546dbacked Under | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 602 | 50.5%304 W · 298 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Over | 50c | 87.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +11.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…e82ebacked Under | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Under | 61c | 80.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 207 | 62.3%129 W · 78 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99aa…127bbacked Under | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 41c | 59.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 199 | 50.8%101 W · 98 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…7409backed Under | 55c | 55.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Over | 42c | 52.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 248 | 41.9%104 W · 144 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…06acbacked Under | 45c | 52.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 146 | 40.4%59 W · 87 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Under | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 693 | 37.8%262 W · 431 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x362a…8683backed Under | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 50c | 46.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Over | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 369 | 54.7%202 W · 167 L | +28.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45d2…22fbbacked Under | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 46c | 39.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 37.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Over | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 270 | 50%135 W · 135 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b87…f42dbacked Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 41c | 31.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 41c | 28.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca8…ddddbacked Under | 59c | 25.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 278 | 46.8%130 W · 148 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…c5c7backed Under | 52c | 24.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Over | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd400…28b8backed Under | 53c | 19.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5this page
- Brandon Williams: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Dean Wade: Points O/U 5.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Evan Mobley: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Keon Ellis: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Mavericks vs. CavaliersMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 242.5Over won
- Max Christie: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- P.J. Washington: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-16.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-11.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.