TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,558

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,558 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Under49c7,068$3,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,436.574,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over51c3,140$1,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,530.612,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Over51c2,500$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2251,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Over52c1,923$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.081,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over54c1,431$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.82,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe393…f016backed Under54c1,290$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70014059.3%83 W · 57 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under58c1,212$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.768,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Under64c781.39$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50027158.3%158 W · 113 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Over36c748.99$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.3626839.2%105 W · 163 L-0.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under38c580$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.43,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under47c500.25$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.912,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over39c434$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.744,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Over51c402.12$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.287744.7%392 W · 485 L-1.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under49c397.59$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.821,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Under59c345.76$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20447651.7%246 W · 230 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92de…87eebacked Over48c322.92$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.922161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+24.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under48c303.06$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.472,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over46c255.5$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.065,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0275…596dbacked Under64c234.51$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15016749.1%82 W · 85 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed Over49c190.66$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.783158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over42c168.28$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.932,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2a7…7916backed Over41c167.99$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.113250%16 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over36c154.22$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.13,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Under60c150$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9032450.3%163 W · 161 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0307…7ab8backed Over52c142.28$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.6245452%236 W · 218 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under60c135$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.841,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61af…aa01backed Under56c129.28$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.7738464.3%247 W · 137 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8230…5121backed Over11c105.43$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9420837.5%78 W · 130 L+38.2wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+115.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over52c103.14$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.873,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x147c…546dbacked Under59c101.69$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+34.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Over51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0460250.5%304 W · 298 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e72…54f0backed Over50c87.27$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6410462.5%65 W · 39 L+11.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+27.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5e5d…e82ebacked Under60c83.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014252.1%74 W · 68 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c4…d390backed Under61c80.25$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6520762.3%129 W · 78 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99aa…127bbacked Under48c62.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-49.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Under50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010850%54 W · 54 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Over41c59.9$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3419950.8%101 W · 98 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c76…7409backed Under55c55.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.088247.6%39 W · 43 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc798…a8e9backed Over42c52.53$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4724841.9%104 W · 144 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbf7…06acbacked Under45c52.4$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5814640.4%59 W · 87 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb052…7adabacked Under59c50.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3029046.9%136 W · 154 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Over41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.569337.8%262 W · 431 L+2.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x362a…8683backed Under62c48.39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3013155%72 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under50c46.77$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.411,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7200…9299backed Over46c45$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.336954.7%202 W · 167 L+28.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x45d2…22fbbacked Under59c42.37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2511348.7%55 W · 58 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-8.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over46c39.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.690357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over46c37.01$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.899,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0642…8c68backed Over43c34.88$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8827050%135 W · 135 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b87…f42dbacked Under58c34.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207544%33 W · 42 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over41c31.69$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.76,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over41c28.4$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.772,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ca8…ddddbacked Under59c25.28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1527846.8%130 W · 148 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2079…c5c7backed Under52c24.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.491346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed Over43c23.26$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.263066.7%20 W · 10 L+5.4wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+35.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd400…28b8backed Under53c19.75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.471656.3%9 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick65cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.