NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c16918fade8537c4b31ccddd6a9fe1426cfe4487305f51ff2fdfa1f7023a570

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Mavericksof Cavaliers, Mavericks
Resolved: Mar 15, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $77,889

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,889 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Mavericks	52c	19,222$9,928 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,293.98	1,915	49.3%944 W · 971 L	+19.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Mavericks	53c	11,887$6,300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,586.87	277	47.7%132 W · 145 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6caf…7ef6backed Cavaliers	47c	8,511$4,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,000	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.17per pick	51cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers	48c	6,334$3,059 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,058.62	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Cavaliers	48c	6,180$2,966 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,966.39	1,212	48.3%586 W · 626 L	-20.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Cavaliers	49c	6,000$2,938 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,937.76	1,556	52.8%822 W · 734 L	+40.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Mavericks	52c	3,853$2,004 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,849.53	1,374	50.1%689 W · 685 L	+34.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Cavaliers	50c	3,416$1,708 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,708	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Mavericks	51c	3,300$1,683 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,617	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Cavaliers	47c	3,193$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500.49	357	44.3%158 W · 199 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Cavaliers	47c	2,766$1,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,300	387	50.4%195 W · 192 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Cavaliers	50c	2,518$1,251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,250.63	2,346	48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L	-14.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Cavaliers	50c	2,349$1,173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,172.61	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Mavericks	52c	2,150$1,118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,032	142	45.8%65 W · 77 L	-5.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Cavaliers	51c	2,068$1,055 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,054.68	1,044	47.5%496 W · 548 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f4…c48fbacked Mavericks	52c	1,923$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$923.08	51	47.1%24 W · 27 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Cavaliers	49c	1,500$735 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$735	86	57%49 W · 37 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde79…2a1bbacked Cavaliers	47c	1,474$693 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$693	173	49.7%86 W · 87 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mavericks	51c	1,399$713 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$685.69	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Mavericks	53c	1,339$710 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$629.33	316	43.4%137 W · 179 L	-18.0wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-12%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Mavericks	50c	1,119$565 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$554.27	807	37.7%304 W · 503 L	-33.9wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Mavericks	54c	1,001$540 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$461.19	672	52.7%354 W · 318 L	+15.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9394…4e1cbacked Mavericks	51c	916.61$467 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$449.14	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+96.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Mavericks	48c	892.1$428 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$463.89	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Cavaliers	47c	851.06$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	209	48.8%102 W · 107 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Mavericks	52c	754.94$393 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$362.37	489	57.5%281 W · 208 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Mavericks	53c	754.61$398 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$356.36	268	39.2%105 W · 163 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Cavaliers	48c	404.5$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.6	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Cavaliers	48c	397.26$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.68	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Cavaliers	50c	373.75$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.88	813	49.4%402 W · 411 L	+5.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec56…dd09backed Cavaliers	47c	300$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141	283	48.8%138 W · 145 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Cavaliers	49c	298.56$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.04	2,507	48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L	+19.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x187b…8848backed Cavaliers	50c	240$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	722	50.6%365 W · 357 L	-17.6wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Cavaliers	48c	208.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	649	44.7%290 W · 359 L	-9.5wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xea60…e977backed Cavaliers	49c	204.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	91	59.3%54 W · 37 L	+5.5wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8180…f4dabacked Mavericks	53c	200$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94	433	52.2%226 W · 207 L	+19.3wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd62d…5992backed Mavericks	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	378	52.9%200 W · 178 L	+8.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9868…e82bbacked Mavericks	50c	180$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90	62	56.5%35 W · 27 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Cavaliers	48c	177.08$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	874	53.3%466 W · 408 L	+19.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Cavaliers	49c	170.1$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.62	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Cavaliers	48c	159.99$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.8	955	48.5%463 W · 492 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Cavaliers	50c	136.97$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.04	399	43.1%172 W · 227 L	-17.1wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Cavaliers	46c	134.63$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.93	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf469…dcaabacked Cavaliers	49c	107.86$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.85	221	54.8%121 W · 100 L	+9.1wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Cavaliers	50c	103.72$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.86	360	45%162 W · 198 L	-10.9wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Cavaliers	50c	98.03$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.02	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9572…ea8ebacked Mavericks	53c	96$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.12	79	60.8%48 W · 31 L	+8.2wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd0b3…091cbacked Cavaliers	48c	96$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.08	82	51.2%42 W · 40 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	0%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Mavericks	53c	91.82$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.95	576	50%288 W · 288 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Mavericks	55c	78.55$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.62	514	38.7%199 W · 315 L	-29.6wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x45c1…4364backed Mavericks	53c	77.43$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.6	140	47.1%66 W · 74 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eca…6882backed Mavericks	52c	67.31$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.31	159	36.5%58 W · 101 L	-11.3wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Cavaliers	48c	65.43$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.7	648	44.8%290 W · 358 L	-32.3wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4168…a631backed Mavericks	52c	57.67$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.68	121	46.3%56 W · 65 L	-6.8wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1aa…071abacked Mavericks	55c	54.55$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.55	90	47.8%43 W · 47 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed Cavaliers	49c	51.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	745	47.2%352 W · 393 L	-13.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ba4…fd40backed Cavaliers	48c	50.16$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.08	66	28.8%19 W · 47 L	-5.0wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Mavericks	63c	46.75$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.23	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Cavaliers	38c	45.73$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.44	1,633	41.2%672 W · 961 L	+26.3wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Mavericks	50c	39.64$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.64	917	46.9%430 W · 487 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x628a…6d8fbacked Mavericks	53c	37.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.74	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.23per pick	52cpaid	+30.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe293…d3edbacked Mavericks	51c	35.72$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.44	127	39.4%50 W · 77 L	-9.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x56a7…9f37backed Mavericks	53c	32.65$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.35	208	47.1%98 W · 110 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa051…67b9backed Cavaliers	40c	30$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-4.0wins	-0.23per pick	35cpaid	-76.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Mavericks	53c	29.26$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.75	1,322	49.9%660 W · 662 L	+13.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f68…4132backed Mavericks	53c	28.3$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.3	134	41.8%56 W · 78 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Mavericks	55c	26.27$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.89	296	45.6%135 W · 161 L	-12.3wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc798…a8e9backed Cavaliers	48c	24.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	248	41.9%104 W · 144 L	-9.7wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe93e…8896backed Cavaliers	50c	22.23$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c4c…b7b8backed Mavericks	52c	22$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.56	150	54%81 W · 69 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Mavericks	55c	21.37$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)this page
Brandon Williams: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
Dean Wade: Points O/U 5.5Yes won
Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Evan Mobley: Points O/U 19.5No won
Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
James Harden: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Keon Ellis: Points O/U 9.5No won
Mavericks vs. CavaliersMavericks won
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5Over won
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 231.5Over won
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 233.5Over won
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Over won
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Over won
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Over won
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Over won
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Over won
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Over won
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5Over won
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Over won
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 242.5Over won
Max Christie: Points O/U 11.5No won
Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
P.J. Washington: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Mavericks won
Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Mavericks won
Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Mavericks won
Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Mavericks won
Spread: Cavaliers (-16.5)Mavericks won
Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)Mavericks won
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Mavericks won
Spread: Mavericks (-11.5)Cavaliers won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event