NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36f627753752b1eb6365d26a86eda09681b8426ca495c6c33c9e1ae02c73b8a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,657 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 11,587$5,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,758.99 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 50c | 4,799$2,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,377.52 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Over | 48c | 2,075$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.75 | 263 | 37.3%98 W · 165 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 53c | 2,062$1,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.3 | 566 | 46.5%263 W · 303 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 1,855$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.59 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under | 52c | 1,037$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.08 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 990.84$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.97 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Over | 48c | 929.85$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.52 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 824.36$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.77 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 47c | 773.45$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.44 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 50c | 615.2$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.66 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 42c | 589.38$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.18 | 268 | 39.2%105 W · 163 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 33c | 589.28$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.46 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 28c | 548.9$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.7 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 45c | 546.32$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.48 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 51c | 539.02$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.6 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 41c | 537.05$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.99 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba58…28c2backed Over | 43c | 503.53$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.53 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 47c | 498.07$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.29 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under | 60c | 488$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.7 | 348 | 51.7%180 W · 168 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 43c | 414$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.98 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over | 47c | 336.17$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.17 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Over | 53c | 326.73$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.74 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Over | 50c | 313.71$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.64 | 655 | 42.9%281 W · 374 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 57c | 293.06$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.82 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 48c | 291.67$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.67 | 521 | 46.6%243 W · 278 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c773backed Under | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 131 | 48.9%64 W · 67 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 48c | 249$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.68 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 50c | 245.5$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.75 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 51c | 221.6$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.26 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 434 | 47.5%206 W · 228 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed Over | 52c | 181.35$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.05 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Over | 45c | 174.6$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.03 | 584 | 50.2%293 W · 291 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 54c | 164.4$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.82 | 361 | 54.8%198 W · 163 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Under | 57c | 150$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 324 | 50.3%163 W · 161 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab1…9678backed Under | 76c | 144.37$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.23 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 48c | 136.97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.22 | 399 | 43.1%172 W · 227 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 55c | 130.71$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.97 | 520 | 53.3%277 W · 243 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a4…3117backed Over | 33c | 127.22$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.67 | 286 | 16.4%47 W · 239 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2a…7defbacked Over | 46c | 76.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 48c | 73.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4c…dc70backed Over | 48c | 72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 52c | 64.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1e5ebacked Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 134 | 47%63 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…1f45backed Under | 49c | 58.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99aa…127bbacked Under | 64c | 56.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…7925backed Over | 53c | 51.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 182 | 61%111 W · 71 L | +16.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 59c | 51.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 50.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 43c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 49c | 46.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Over | 43c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Over | 38c | 45.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Over | 49c | 42.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Under | 41c | 41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Over | 39c | 40.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 182 | 42.9%78 W · 104 L | -10.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2e…18aabacked Over | 44c | 33.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…3e7abacked Under | 71c | 32.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +21%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 251 | 38.6%97 W · 154 L | -11.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 55c | 28.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 46c | 27.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 514 | 38.7%199 W · 315 L | -29.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Under | 45c | 25.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 156 | 63.5%99 W · 57 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Over | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 533 | 39.6%211 W · 322 L | -39.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 45c | 23.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Under | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Over | 45c | 22.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…aa01backed Under | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 384 | 64.3%247 W · 137 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 53c | 19.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf26e…5067backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5this page
- Brandon Williams: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Dean Wade: Points O/U 5.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Evan Mobley: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Keon Ellis: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Mavericks vs. CavaliersMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 242.5Over won
- Max Christie: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- P.J. Washington: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-16.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-11.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.