MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66531929fda140c791186817d23e0f488423ca2352df555a0210b7e597c1c376
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,343 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Seattle Mariners | 55c | 6,989$3,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,847.37 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed San Diego Padres | 45c | 3,127$1,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,712.82 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbd…d6f0backed San Diego Padres | 46c | 2,676$1,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,445.09 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Seattle Mariners | 54c | 2,600$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,404.14 | 474 | 47.3%224 W · 250 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…1d79backed San Diego Padres | 47c | 2,120$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.29 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -17.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Seattle Mariners | 54c | 2,045$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107.22 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Seattle Mariners | 57c | 1,177$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.62 | 1,358 | 50.8%690 W · 668 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Seattle Mariners | 55c | 936.91$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.3 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Seattle Mariners | 54c | 832.44$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.52 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked San Diego Padres | 45c | 801.35$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.92 | 3,303 | 46.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked San Diego Padres | 44c | 800$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked San Diego Padres | 46c | 768$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.72 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebf…3b02backed Seattle Mariners | 56c | 700.65$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked San Diego Padres | 46c | 646$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.84 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x268e…bb7fbacked San Diego Padres | 45c | 527.77$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.27 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Seattle Mariners | 54c | 400.04$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.26 | 478 | 50.4%241 W · 237 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Seattle Mariners | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 231.82$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.82 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 209.42$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.64 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…87bdbacked Seattle Mariners | 49c | 202.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…697abacked San Diego Padres | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked San Diego Padres | 45c | 198.92$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.41 | 991 | 49.9%495 W · 496 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 186$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.16 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Seattle Mariners | 74c | 168$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.45 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…f7dfbacked Seattle Mariners | 60c | 167$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 785 | 50.2%394 W · 391 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4342…5797backed San Diego Padres | 68c | 147.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98a5…a6edbacked Seattle Mariners | 8c | 137.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Seattle Mariners | 54c | 135.55$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Seattle Mariners | 73c | 133$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.73 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed San Diego Padres | 26c | 132.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.72 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed San Diego Padres | 25c | 120.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.6 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 112.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 351 | 37%130 W · 221 L | -17.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13d6…926ebacked Seattle Mariners | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…a69bbacked San Diego Padres | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked San Diego Padres | 45c | 96.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 93.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.03 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Seattle Mariners | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,681 | 50.1%842 W · 839 L | -22.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…79afbacked San Diego Padres | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed San Diego Padres | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 370 | 48.9%181 W · 189 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked San Diego Padres | 45c | 66.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed San Diego Padres | 46c | 65.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Seattle Mariners | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked San Diego Padres | 45c | 53.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 52.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Seattle Mariners | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Diego Padres | 53c | 48.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked San Diego Padres | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked San Diego Padres | 43c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…ff08backed Seattle Mariners | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe903…0b88backed San Diego Padres | 33c | 41.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Seattle Mariners | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 955 | 55.2%527 W · 428 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Seattle Mariners | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 403 | 51.4%207 W · 196 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 37.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Seattle Mariners | 56c | 35.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ed…e29fbacked Seattle Mariners | 35c | 35.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 33.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2e…d2abbacked San Diego Padres | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…3773backed Seattle Mariners | 47c | 32.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 70c | 30.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc01d…2e79backed Seattle Mariners | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…38bfbacked Seattle Mariners | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c94dbacked Seattle Mariners | 55c | 27.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed San Diego Padres | 77c | 22.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 856 | 35.7%306 W · 550 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…053ebacked Seattle Mariners | 55c | 18.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.