TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Henri Squire vs Cristian Garin

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Henri Squireof Henri Squire, Cristian Garin
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$89,358
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$105,760

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,358 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x26b4…b8a9backed Henri Squire25c11,605$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,704.8936145.2%163 W · 198 L-19.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Cristian Garin57c5,233$2,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,963.048,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9d3…079fbacked Cristian Garin80c4,152$3,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,321.5948855.9%273 W · 215 L-20.0wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Cristian Garin55c2,945$1,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,630.144,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b91…06c4backed Cristian Garin41c2,211$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9009138.5%35 W · 56 L+0.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc00…79f8backed Cristian Garin78c1,605$1,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,251.7541060.5%248 W · 162 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Cristian Garin74c1,415$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04762061.9%384 W · 236 L-18.7wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Cristian Garin57c1,269$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.944,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc26a…b715backed Henri Squire22c1,258$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.4657321.8%125 W · 448 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cristian Garin62c1,041$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.958,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48de…95babacked Henri Squire23c1,013$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.0462545.4%284 W · 341 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba06…0004backed Cristian Garin71c1,000$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71415151%77 W · 74 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Cristian Garin77c905.64$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.843,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17c1…a606backed Cristian Garin77c824.88$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.154557.8%26 W · 19 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick68cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6419…0f53backed Cristian Garin30c804.98$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.033852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Cristian Garin31c800$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.46,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce9…61e5backed Henri Squire26c726.77$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.7711547%54 W · 61 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+18.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b2c…2151backed Henri Squire8c699.99$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.9938911.6%45 W · 344 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick10cpaid+22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Cristian Garin48c585.9$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28098240.1%394 W · 588 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Henri Squire40c530.85$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.94,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93fa…4c6abacked Henri Squire20c524.72$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.722100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+340%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x60a3…3850backed Henri Squire11c523.07$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.1485624.4%209 W · 647 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f3b…9ed5backed Henri Squire23c500$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3854143.9%18 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Cristian Garin43c485.2$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2111,10641%454 W · 652 L+2.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ea2…3e80backed Cristian Garin80c475$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3806075%45 W · 15 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+13.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x57c3…44b8backed Henri Squire7c445$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.266225.8%16 W · 46 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+113.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x012d…9db6backed Cristian Garin49c422.18$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20684968.4%581 W · 268 L+25.9wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4538…7d5cbacked Henri Squire59c411.81$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.8117738.4%68 W · 109 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Cristian Garin62c411.07$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.315,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Henri Squire59c399.99$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1641,02646.8%480 W · 546 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc04c…cebfbacked Cristian Garin76c386.36$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.6267178.7%528 W · 143 L+49.1wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+10.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb897…e44ebacked Henri Squire25c366$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.121641.7%90 W · 126 L-0.9wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Henri Squire22c350.72$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.857,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe44c…32a5backed Henri Squire9c329.2$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.22228.6%19 W · 203 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed Cristian Garin16c310.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5052341.5%217 W · 306 L-12.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e02…b178backed Cristian Garin7c294.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.413349.6%32 W · 302 L-16.7wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-48.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb575…d35bbacked Henri Squire17c288.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.9730235.1%106 W · 196 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa99…f152backed Cristian Garin70c283.7$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20073458.6%430 W · 304 L-26.5wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5e0…ecc4backed Henri Squire74c270.11$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.234772.3%34 W · 13 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked Cristian Garin29c262.34$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7559965.8%394 W · 205 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Cristian Garin76c255.15$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.014,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Cristian Garin59c253.5$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.416,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Henri Squire62c235$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.3735187.7%308 W · 43 L+66.4wins+0.19per pick69cpaid+29.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Henri Squire6c233.33$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.331,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Henri Squire24c220.31$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.5192138.4%354 W · 567 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cf9…c873backed Henri Squire23c217.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.433063.3%19 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+20%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Henri Squire60c210.09$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.5183047%390 W · 440 L-16.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bf9…be26backed Henri Squire66c189.26$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.3643062.3%268 W · 162 L-0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Henri Squire23c180$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.686835.4%307 W · 561 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Henri Squire41c172.16$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.492145.2%416 W · 505 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Cristian Garin69c155.32$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.272,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e45…39dabacked Henri Squire23c149.1$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.318551.9%96 W · 89 L+10.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5036…6c08backed Henri Squire68c147$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475550.9%28 W · 27 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf96d…20bebacked Henri Squire22c138.59$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.148214.1%68 W · 414 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Cristian Garin63c136.48$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.232,08544.5%928 W · 1,157 L-51.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe99…506bbacked Henri Squire22c136.36$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.3667852.1%353 W · 325 L-2.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Cristian Garin65c134.18$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.321,67153%885 W · 786 L+44.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03b9…dc25backed Cristian Garin39c131.75$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.751566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ad…7889backed Cristian Garin69c131.45$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9956070.7%396 W · 164 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Cristian Garin77c129.88$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.012,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee0a…36d8backed Cristian Garin78c128.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10038262.3%238 W · 144 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e3…4874backed Henri Squire80c125.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1291880.5%739 W · 179 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick76cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x024f…1c51backed Cristian Garin37c122.75$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454526.7%12 W · 33 L-7.7wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-46.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x24f1…6a07backed Cristian Garin27c122.53$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333357.6%19 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Cristian Garin65c121.81$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.726,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ee4…ed67backed Henri Squire11c121.44$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.6928237.9%107 W · 175 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Cristian Garin75c121.3$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.61,83153%971 W · 860 L-45.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Henri Squire75c120$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.132,11855.9%1,185 W · 933 L+40.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Henri Squire33c110.18$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.8243950.8%223 W · 216 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed Cristian Garin37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9929039.3%114 W · 176 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ece…3b9bbacked Cristian Garin77c100$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7715966%105 W · 54 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Cristian Garin76c100$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.946556.1%261 W · 204 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50dc…b61abacked Henri Squire23c100$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7727530.2%83 W · 192 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Cristian Garin76c100$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7652750.3%265 W · 262 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x389d…995fbacked Henri Squire23c99.48$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.614452.8%76 W · 68 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9079…b19bbacked Henri Squire43c97$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7352854.9%290 W · 238 L+20.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Cristian Garin67c94.27$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.723,67754.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L+107.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4ec…1cc8backed Henri Squire31c90.61$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.6132333.4%108 W · 215 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5b3…4756backed Henri Squire23c88.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.9619548.2%94 W · 101 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5c7…c6bdbacked Henri Squire36c88$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.328851.1%45 W · 43 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Henri Squire52c86.71$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.711,42848.2%689 W · 739 L+4.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0ac…7deebacked Henri Squire61c82$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9833253.6%178 W · 154 L+21.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Henri Squire49c81.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3386470%605 W · 259 L+43.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Henri Squire37c76$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.884,60248.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L+34.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1861…408dbacked Cristian Garin76c75$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5744851.6%231 W · 217 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Henri Squire19c67.89$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.673,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e41…b875backed Cristian Garin77c67.53$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5271165.1%463 W · 248 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Henri Squire25c67.23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4634847.1%164 W · 184 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bab…3995backed Cristian Garin78c64.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeab4…f8c6backed Cristian Garin78c64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.921450%7 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x150c…add3backed Cristian Garin79c63.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020670.4%145 W · 61 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8091…6bf6backed Henri Squire79c63.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.292556%14 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd93d…27a0backed Henri Squire24c62.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.551644.8%231 W · 285 L-1.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27cf…979abacked Henri Squire23c57.48$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2618148.1%87 W · 94 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87d1…3744backed Henri Squire58c51.72$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.721,10466.9%739 W · 365 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0862…dc29backed Henri Squire35c51$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.251339.4%202 W · 311 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc7e…70ecbacked Henri Squire21c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.51,00145.4%454 W · 547 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27b1…3813backed Henri Squire22c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391,16849.1%573 W · 595 L-2.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe658…2c42backed Henri Squire23c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.539842.2%168 W · 230 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Cristian Garin78c48.35$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.712,56163%1,613 W · 948 L-10.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.