MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6841c481729dd6ae97ae98a1b038b076820992ec0c60079c2f547d8a006a8fe4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 25c | 1,789$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.98 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 79c | 1,620$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.74 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 78c | 1,182$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.55 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 1,008$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.75 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 76c | 860.63$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.24 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Houston Astros | 65c | 852$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.52 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 730.95$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.68 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Houston Astros | 65c | 632.45$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.28 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 23c | 612$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.76 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 20c | 545.68$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.82 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Toronto Blue Jays | 22c | 440.62$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 23c | 411$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.63 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 25c | 404.01$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…f058backed Houston Astros | 78c | 384.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Toronto Blue Jays | 30c | 366.7$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Houston Astros | 65c | 346$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.1 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 300$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.4 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Houston Astros | 76c | 111.16$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…86d3backed Houston Astros | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Houston Astros | 74c | 99.06$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Houston Astros | 65c | 97.18$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 21c | 96.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 21c | 91.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Houston Astros | 78c | 75.9$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Houston Astros | 74c | 69.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 17c | 63.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Houston Astros | 79c | 54.34$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Houston Astros | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Houston Astros | 78c | 41.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97d4…7b65backed Toronto Blue Jays | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5181…504bbacked Houston Astros | 79c | 37.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Houston Astros | 79c | 32.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Houston Astros | 77c | 31.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Houston Astros | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Houston Astros | 80c | 22.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f57…2261backed Houston Astros | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Houston Astros | 79c | 17.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Houston Astros | 80c | 16.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston AstrosToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.