MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe09e6a2753f83253f1fa46b0fa0ac0c3430b6f3309bfc02fe47fcbe887c55865
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Houston Astros, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 33c | 18,674$6,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,191.25 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 7,203$3,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,817.77 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Houston Astros | 44c | 6,072$2,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,671.59 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 5,937$3,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,613.37 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 80c | 1,520$1,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.1 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 1,336$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.52 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 1,229$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.54 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Houston Astros | 20c | 803.33$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.15 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Houston Astros | 32c | 728$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.78 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c72…7e7ebacked Houston Astros | 34c | 579.53$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.02 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 506.5$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.59 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 408$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.64 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 395.53$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.48 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x648a…6af9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 379.47$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Houston Astros | 38c | 361.47$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.36 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Houston Astros | 33c | 272.36$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.21 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b3…69aabacked Houston Astros | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 255.32$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.32 | 213 | 43.2%92 W · 121 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 234.77$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.95 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 206.41$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7aa…08c3backed Houston Astros | 35c | 155.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 68c | 131$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 111.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.88 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 86.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Houston Astros | 34c | 84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 79c | 73.35$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 69.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Houston Astros | 57c | 60.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Houston Astros | 36c | 53.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…eebebacked Houston Astros | 20c | 52.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Houston Astros | 32c | 50.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 30.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 28.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 26.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 68c | 15.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston AstrosToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.