MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc46a00078e982443ff2ed0fbb29044c4e996cf2665e4517cea1a867b719fc8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 50c | 5,734$2,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,867 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 59c | 4,678$2,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,766.87 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 3,003$1,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,532.78 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 49c | 2,765$1,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,411.51 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 1,698$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.25 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 55c | 1,061$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.18 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 53c | 970.02$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.11 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x776f…32b7backed Over | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.86 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 50c | 804.87$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.88 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 50c | 766$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 45c | 744$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.8 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 613.89$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.11 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 31c | 451$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.81 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 49c | 400.74$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.93 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 7c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed Under | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…44d6backed Over | 58c | 362.07$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.07 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92f3…b21cbacked Over | 58c | 309.52$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 48c | 300$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 56c | 267.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 45c | 251.72$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.27 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 44c | 235.53$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.63 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…5862backed Over | 76c | 230$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 46c | 223.9$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.27 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 32c | 212.34$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.95 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 33c | 202.69$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 45c | 200.35$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.14 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Under | 67c | 193.28$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.5 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 56c | 192.07$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.12 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 44c | 141.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Under | 34c | 123.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 49c | 108.38$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 46c | 105.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 44c | 90.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Under | 64c | 90.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 61c | 80.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 46c | 74.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 53c | 70.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 45c | 61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 53c | 56.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2d…2be7backed Under | 31c | 48.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed Under | 46c | 45.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 32c | 45.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 37c | 42.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 56c | 40.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Under | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 53c | 39.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…caa6backed Under | 43c | 37.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Over | 56c | 36.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 45c | 31.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf20…1881backed Under | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 33c | 30.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Under | 49c | 25.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 55c | 24.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 21.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18cd…b710backed Under | 56c | 21.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Under | 73c | 20.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston AstrosToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.