MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fecadf34808ebe4418d1556b3fc6232b4cfafd72bd92c83c9345b4190e1a9cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8df…a2c7backed Under | 5c | 11,524$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…401fbacked Under | 6c | 10,667$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 66c | 4,092$2,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,684.4 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 36c | 2,759$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,753.63 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…984abacked Under | 10c | 1,999$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 36c | 1,630$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.61 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4218…ad74backed Under | 11c | 1,363$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 59c | 1,202$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.36 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 9c | 1,193$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.79 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 38c | 910.56$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.37 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed Under | 62c | 756.13$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 41c | 450.79$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.62 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba2c…473dbacked Under | 58c | 400$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 60c | 369.74$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.17 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 46c | 317.83$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.63 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 295.83$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.71 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 55c | 274.26$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 55c | 236.36$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 213.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.02 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 53c | 160$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 46c | 136$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.26 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 54c | 117.9$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 56c | 106.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 46c | 103.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Under | 50c | 98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Under | 72c | 97.7$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.29 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Under | 28c | 90.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcebf…832ebacked Over | 46c | 89.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 47c | 85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 35c | 82.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.1 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 45c | 79.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Over | 41c | 77.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 39c | 77.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 57c | 63.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…2dbabacked Over | 31c | 57.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5181…504bbacked Under | 65c | 45.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31ed…552ebacked Under | 68c | 44.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 41c | 44.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 45c | 42.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 42.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed Under | 59c | 42.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 34c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 34c | 37.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…caa6backed Under | 55c | 29.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 42c | 28.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 59c | 24.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston AstrosToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.