College Football · resolved market
Miami vs. Indiana: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69123d2bf6c058fc2fb0159cac524c5b1d55451c9332fa6c4144499b8c9e2c4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indianaof Miami, Indiana
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e64…66f1backed Miami | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Miami | 32c | 2,825$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.36 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13ff…16a3backed Miami | 30c | 1,650$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked Indiana | 68c | 1,565$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.8 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Indiana | 68c | 950$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Indiana | 70c | 850.01$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Indiana | 66c | 684.01$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.56 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3a…df40backed Miami | 33c | 675.23$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Indiana | 66c | 486.33$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.19 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Indiana | 69c | 408.17$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.53 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Miami | 31c | 349.74$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.42 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf37c…3c74backed Miami | 32c | 341.85$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.09 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Indiana | 70c | 306.94$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.39 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…7defbacked Miami | 32c | 299.98$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…490dbacked Miami | 33c | 291.26$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Indiana | 69c | 249$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.19 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…12ebbacked Miami | 34c | 163.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Indiana | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.5wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Miami | 24c | 111.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x739a…a4d2backed Indiana | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df1…2da7backed Miami | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Indiana | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Indiana | 71c | 99.01$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd8…0b62backed Indiana | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5f…d727backed Miami | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…cfa6backed Indiana | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9676…8349backed Indiana | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a47…6788backed Miami | 37c | 53.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Miami | 29c | 43.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab52…5487backed Indiana | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78d4…2c20backed Indiana | 71c | 38.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dad…540bbacked Miami | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Indiana | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…d7a4backed Indiana | 70c | 25.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2af…28c3backed Indiana | 62c | 22.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…5cacbacked Indiana | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290e…d50fbacked Indiana | 69c | 20.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami vs. Indiana: 1H Moneylinethis page
- Miami vs. IndianaIndiana won
- Miami vs. Indiana: O/U 46.5Over won
- Miami vs. Indiana: O/U 47.5Over won
- O/U 48.5Under won
- Spread: Indiana (-7.5)Miami won
- Spread: Indiana (-8.5)Miami won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.