TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Wizards

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heatof Heat, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$214,723
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$236,592

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,723 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 271 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbb91…b665backed Wizards24c50,000$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,0001855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x083c…3f02backed Heat76c50,000$38,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,0005100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+59.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe21e…4d48backed Wizards0c15,500$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.371434.9%7 W · 136 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-43.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Wizards8c7,223$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.631,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Wizards20c6,990$1,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,388.6496447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x997b…801ebacked Wizards22c6,720$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.5846131%143 W · 318 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Wizards20c6,362$1,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,272.3947848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Wizards6c6,173$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.473,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x994e…9cf5backed Wizards22c5,411$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,184.9161345.5%279 W · 334 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Wizards0c5,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.753350%0 W · 335 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Wizards23c4,239$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.6137734%128 W · 249 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa45e…64febacked Heat80c4,175$3,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+62.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2863…0e3ebacked Wizards21c4,110$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.0815741.4%65 W · 92 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa535…6bf5backed Heat80c4,021$3,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.329557.9%55 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ca…d65ebacked Heat76c3,975$3,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.6925865.5%169 W · 89 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf62d…d3a0backed Heat78c3,749$2,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.3929643.2%128 W · 168 L-12.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Wizards11c3,412$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.055,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2b8…5ce5backed Heat78c3,000$2,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6703961.5%24 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Wizards2c2,971$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.648783%26 W · 852 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked Wizards22c2,860$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.7930826.6%82 W · 226 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d7…1935backed Heat78c2,569$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.714546.7%21 W · 24 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-18.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2bd…dce0backed Wizards24c2,468$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.477745%350 W · 427 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Wizards20c2,205$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.931,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Heat79c2,003$1,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.0328341.7%118 W · 165 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Heat77c1,874$1,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.8988053.8%473 W · 407 L+52.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f5b…d411backed Heat80c1,792$1,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.355959.3%35 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Wizards27c1,701$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.238143%164 W · 217 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2745…17b3backed Heat78c1,505$1,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.11369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Wizards21c1,500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31548137.2%179 W · 302 L-15.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x532f…83ccbacked Wizards22c1,500$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-39.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Wizards3c1,390$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2170640.8%288 W · 418 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda87…4e9bbacked Wizards24c1,289$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.262015%3 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-24.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd28e…aae3backed Wizards21c1,263$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.2210428.8%30 W · 74 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Wizards20c1,200$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401,02848.5%499 W · 529 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Wizards24c1,143$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.873647.3%348 W · 388 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Heat79c1,127$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.6757760.5%349 W · 228 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Wizards1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb652…2db4backed Wizards1c1,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1137627.9%105 W · 271 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb004…51b4backed Wizards22c805.91$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.34531.1%14 W · 31 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde8c…6307backed Wizards24c770.79$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1844535.6%16 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7096…e019backed Heat78c760.52$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.5230061.7%185 W · 115 L+23.9wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+25.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Wizards9c729.39$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.21,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Heat78c685.44$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.81,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefaf…26a1backed Heat76c657.89$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.8919535.4%69 W · 126 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb272…21d8backed Heat76c656.11$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.473145.2%14 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-35.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a6b…bfacbacked Heat78c641.03$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.032157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d7c…b7dbbacked Heat78c620.49$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.5119452.1%101 W · 93 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+26.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Wizards24c605.49$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.3685347.9%409 W · 444 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7662…356bbacked Wizards22c599.98$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13245743.3%198 W · 259 L-12.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Heat77c599.98$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.991,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Wizards2c597.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.821,0351.1%11 W · 1,024 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-90.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfb3…e68cbacked Wizards21c500.49$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.635050.6%177 W · 173 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x471f…f60abacked Heat77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1154575.6%34 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Wizards22c500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11075347.5%358 W · 395 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76d9…ef73backed Wizards22c500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101050%5 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Heat77c499.98$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1151,19846.8%561 W · 637 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42e0…0578backed Wizards23c488.7$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.420553.7%110 W · 95 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1734…ddd4backed Heat79c466$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.865563.6%35 W · 20 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Heat76c449.99$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1085530.9%17 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7685…482cbacked Heat79c411.59$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.4322950.7%116 W · 113 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d06…59c8backed Wizards23c406.51$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.851060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a46…3e55backed Wizards20c324.92$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.621533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-40%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd156…13b1backed Heat78c320.51$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.513568.6%24 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4cd…0516backed Wizards9c300$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2839843.5%173 W · 225 L-1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe59b…488ebacked Wizards23c300$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6972341.2%298 W · 425 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58c6…eeb6backed Heat77c266.23$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.234344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9a0…88eebacked Wizards17c264.49$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9712938%49 W · 80 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2da…b4debacked Wizards24c255.36$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.051442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Wizards20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5087647.5%416 W · 460 L+3.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62b2…85d5backed Wizards21c249.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.51442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick53cpaid+0.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbec0…b7b8backed Wizards22c248.15$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.591145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bea…80a0backed Wizards18c244.29$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.411546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13ce…35f0backed Heat79c242.76$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.9828063.9%179 W · 101 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e72…2237backed Wizards23c241.3$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadbe…bc55backed Heat76c229.38$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.0550453.8%271 W · 233 L-8.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61cb…1babbacked Wizards24c221.29$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.691546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x433b…58debacked Wizards23c217.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505726.3%15 W · 42 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x725f…06c2backed Wizards24c205.8$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,88837.3%704 W · 1,184 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62a8…97d0backed Heat79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4224855.6%138 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Wizards25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5085542%359 W · 496 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x596a…1219backed Heat76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4823658.1%137 W · 99 L+0.7wins0.00per pick58cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64cb…e7f5backed Wizards22c199.9$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.98850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0924…e953backed Wizards17c196.71$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.441145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd71…c879backed Heat78c192.31$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.311457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cbb…e711backed Wizards22c181.81$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c74…4e3cbacked Wizards22c168.19$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371030%3 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-52.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa9ee…5b0bbacked Heat79c164.56$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.564468.2%30 W · 14 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+24.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Wizards20c159.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.833746.3%156 W · 181 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x248c…7f85backed Wizards22c159$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.98966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+19.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x231d…ae78backed Wizards27c158.88$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.51631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-45.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x398e…3752backed Heat77c155.84$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.84560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Heat78c154.81$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0620851.4%107 W · 101 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7acf…cd97backed Wizards23c153.96$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.411258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0692…bb88backed Heat78c153.85$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.85616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-78.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd55c…34febacked Wizards23c152.52$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0833348.9%163 W · 170 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc41e…2dfcbacked Heat77c150$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.520847.6%99 W · 109 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2772…8fd7backed Wizards22c146.14$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.151643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f30…75bdbacked Wizards22c146.09$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.141338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf9…d1ddbacked Wizards22c139.23$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.63955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6815…4293backed Wizards22c135.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.81346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.