TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,974
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,133

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,974 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x339a…1eaebacked No60c1,396$832 inLost-$831.561,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9739…48dfbacked Yes41c896.37$369 inWon+$527.77922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-42.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed No61c564.89$343 inLost-$343.191,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x69a6…4b30backed Yes39c396$154 inWon+$241.56850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4546…a2c2backed Yes39c211.52$82 inWon+$129.031747.1%8 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdbe…5249backed Yes39c192.31$75 inWon+$117.311637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc480…e4a0backed Yes40c172.75$69 inWon+$103.751060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+38.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x575f…7febbacked Yes40c80$32 inWon+$484535.6%16 W · 29 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcdad…9eaebacked Yes39c78.85$30 inWon+$48.4624428.7%70 W · 174 L-22.4wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-30.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9f84…4631backed Yes40c75$30 inWon+$451520%3 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-55.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked No57c73.68$42 inLost-$4295651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c61…4fa6backed Yes38c65.33$25 inWon+$40.337057.1%40 W · 30 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No60c50$30 inLost-$3090863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xabdd…2d96backed No61c49.95$30 inLost-$30.3760267.3%405 W · 197 L+46.2wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe5d2…0814backed Yes39c43.63$17 inWon+$26.472222.7%5 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-45.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7205…3377backed No62c40$25 inLost-$24.845657%260 W · 196 L+44.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2b56…6431backed No62c24.17$15 inLost-$14.993066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe15f…93d7backed No62c20$12 inLost-$12.421672.2%156 W · 60 L+28.6wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+22.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.