TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 18.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,651
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,655

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,651 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd529…f0d4backed No58c2,099$1,207 inWon+$891.541,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Yes45c1,564$707 inLost-$706.843543.4%189 W · 246 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked No56c1,270$712 inWon+$557.71,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8d63…8b8cbacked Yes43c971.14$419 inLost-$418.531233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x69a6…4b30backed Yes44c819.5$357 inLost-$357.02850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd0d…7606backed Yes43c501$215 inLost-$215.359848%47 W · 51 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes40c483.19$193 inLost-$193.195422.2%12 W · 42 L-11.5wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-50.3%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed No57c445.26$254 inWon+$191.0911942.9%51 W · 68 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x298c…3e58backed Yes43c290.9$125 inLost-$12523539.1%92 W · 143 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No57c141.78$81 inWon+$60.3790863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb0cc…3ddebacked Yes43c126.26$54 inLost-$54.291631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-43.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfccd…02d6backed Yes43c90$39 inLost-$38.72433.3%8 W · 16 L-4.1wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-34.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8214…8b4cbacked Yes44c72.5$32 inLost-$31.960%0 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xabdd…2d96backed No58c70$41 inWon+$29.460267.3%405 W · 197 L+46.2wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked No63c59.14$37 inWon+$21.7237755.2%208 W · 169 L+23.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+60.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c61…4fa6backed Yes42c58.84$25 inLost-$257057.1%40 W · 30 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb12…f8f5backed Yes42c47.68$20 inLost-$202025%5 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-45.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf7d7…da51backed Yes42c47.46$20 inLost-$201637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f84…4631backed Yes43c46.68$20 inLost-$201520%3 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-55.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2b56…6431backed No59c33.76$20 inWon+$13.773066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No58c30$17 inWon+$12.61,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7205…3377backed No58c30$17 inWon+$12.645657%260 W · 196 L+44.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcdad…9eaebacked Yes40c25$10 inLost-$1024428.7%70 W · 174 L-22.4wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-30.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe15f…93d7backed No56c20$11 inWon+$8.821672.2%156 W · 60 L+28.6wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+22.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed No59c17.24$10 inWon+$7.145740.4%23 W · 34 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.