NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 220.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b63c868454fc18a8cc75efab412d07e83cfdf385c91811c3673261fa8afbe4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 51c | 9,000$4,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,409.99 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 50c | 5,949$2,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,945.01 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 5,327$2,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,584.56 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Under | 53c | 2,390$1,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.11 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea2…9ad4backed Over | 49c | 2,061$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Under | 52c | 1,084$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.4 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 53c | 1,050$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.5 | 359 | 42.1%151 W · 208 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Over | 50c | 593$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.5 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 531.9$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.03 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 50c | 501.36$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.63 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 50c | 500$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 47c | 480.86$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 49c | 480.78$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.23 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e14…8d33backed Over | 67c | 400$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.6 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 47c | 348.05$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.49 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abf…6024backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 50c | 287.35$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.8 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 50c | 269.73$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.87 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc0…099dbacked Under | 52c | 240.38$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.38 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 50c | 235.54$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.9 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 49c | 217.75$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.7 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…8977backed Over | 76c | 200$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 623 | 47.7%297 W · 326 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 49c | 199.96$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.98 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…620ebacked Over | 50c | 178.47$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.35 | 311 | 55%171 W · 140 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Over | 49c | 164.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.04 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Over | 38c | 140$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0825…5e07backed Under | 50c | 135.36$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.32 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Under | 52c | 128$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 33c | 105.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.88 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb82…c668backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…08a9backed Over | 58c | 103.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891f…88bfbacked Over | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 232 | 49.6%115 W · 117 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…be9abacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 146 | 36.3%53 W · 93 L | +16.4wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7058…26b2backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 50c | 89.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 58c | 84.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7988…a44abacked Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x590c…9268backed Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…4b74backed Under | 56c | 55.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Under | 47c | 53.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 47c | 52.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Over | 54c | 46.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f8…8908backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e59…daf5backed Under | 53c | 39.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e78…70c7backed Over | 50c | 38.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f62…0591backed Over | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e7…ab94backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95be…9968backed Under | 52c | 27.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Under | 52c | 26.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c72…f3ffbacked Over | 39c | 25.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…889cbacked Over | 48c | 25.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 197 | 50.3%99 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5b…6e14backed Over | 52c | 24.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Over | 53c | 20.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07df…7b2dbacked Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 55cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 220.5this page
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Magic vs. ThunderThunder won
- Magic vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5Over won
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5Over won
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5Under won
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Under won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 31.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Tristan da Silva: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.