NBA · resolved market
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 31.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc921880baf8af988434bb4296a1c53dbeffc654a47259108f487c00af2775a23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae8c…93cdbacked No | 46c | 1,769$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.3 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 54c | 1,108$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.42 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa451…3b62backed Yes | 45c | 944.21$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 40c | 508.19$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.19 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -11.5wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Yes | 46c | 321.04$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.29 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a6…4b30backed Yes | 45c | 287.65$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 55c | 285.8$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.65 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1be4…d8edbacked Yes | 46c | 258.39$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…3ddebacked Yes | 45c | 222.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 57c | 150.95$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.56 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4546…a2c2backed Yes | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d5…a33bbacked Yes | 42c | 142.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed No | 43c | 114.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb12…f8f5backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0d…78a5backed Yes | 48c | 102.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -36%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…0b73backed Yes | 43c | 100.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0d…7606backed Yes | 46c | 99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed No | 45c | 82.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 199 | 50.8%101 W · 98 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…7febbacked Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…553dbacked Yes | 43c | 75.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Yes | 48c | 62.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d7…da51backed Yes | 44c | 45.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8303…2df6backed Yes | 39c | 45.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f84…4631backed Yes | 47c | 42.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 56c | 38.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b56…6431backed No | 60c | 25.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 53c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 31.5this page
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Magic vs. ThunderThunder won
- Magic vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5Over won
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5Over won
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 220.5Under won
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5Under won
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Under won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Tristan da Silva: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.