NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc47d4564346012baf314d474d50e57ef4cf408a350acbbadb7e5472be19754a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Magic | 46c | 14,397$6,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,666.74 | 382 | 53.4%204 W · 178 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 54c | 9,296$5,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,289.52 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Thunder | 54c | 7,355$3,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,404.06 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Magic | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Thunder | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 25c | 1,486$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.66 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9752…5b36backed Thunder | 74c | 1,102$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.61 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Magic | 26c | 1,102$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.61 | 188 | 35.1%66 W · 122 L | +24.5wins | +0.13per pick | 22cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Magic | 53c | 1,020$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.6 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Thunder | 47c | 1,020$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.6 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Magic | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a8…a48ebacked Thunder | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Magic | 50c | 991.82$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.26 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Thunder | 53c | 838.96$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.21 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Thunder | 51c | 611$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.39 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Magic | 44c | 609.99$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.4 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1e…4365backed Magic | 47c | 568.68$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Magic | 48c | 554.56$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.48 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Magic | 49c | 531.67$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.2 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…aa08backed Thunder | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Thunder | 55c | 457.81$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.13 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Thunder | 54c | 437.66$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.32 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Magic | 53c | 433.96$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Magic | 49c | 349.97$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.92 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Magic | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder | 54c | 273.56$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.84 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ff…a806backed Thunder | 48c | 231.25$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.25 | 160 | 30.6%49 W · 111 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…1769backed Thunder | 49c | 227.63$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.09 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…620ebacked Thunder | 54c | 220.65$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.91 | 311 | 55%171 W · 140 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Magic | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 195 | 48.7%95 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0100…f6dcbacked Thunder | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Thunder | 51c | 197.71$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.88 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Thunder | 54c | 169.85$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.13 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…b5a5backed Magic | 53c | 151.73$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 332 | 46.1%153 W · 179 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Thunder | 64c | 136.98$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Thunder | 54c | 110.21$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Thunder | 48c | 99.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.82 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Thunder | 51c | 94.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.76 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e78…70c7backed Thunder | 54c | 93.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Thunder | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Magic | 35c | 84.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Magic | 46c | 78.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 336 | 53.9%181 W · 155 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Thunder | 50c | 63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb067…c53fbacked Thunder | 55c | 58.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Thunder | 53c | 56.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf20f…3b33backed Thunder | 57c | 56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e29backed Thunder | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Thunder | 48c | 54.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3a…e1f0backed Thunder | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Thunder | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Magic | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -32.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed Thunder | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Magic | 45c | 41.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Magic | 36c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 506 | 51.2%259 W · 247 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed Magic | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Magic | 50c | 33.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Thunder | 53c | 31.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d9…e3e6backed Thunder | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Thunder | 53c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Magic | 47c | 28.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Thunder | 54c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…a390backed Thunder | 48c | 26.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Magic | 51c | 24.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5b…6e14backed Thunder | 56c | 20.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)this page
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Magic vs. ThunderThunder won
- Magic vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5Over won
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5Over won
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 220.5Under won
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5Under won
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Under won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 31.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Tristan da Silva: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.