TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Thunder

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Magic, Thunder
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,263,428
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,132,282

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,263,428 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 748 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Magic26c150,000$39,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,999.977640.8%31 W · 45 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x906f…88b4backed Magic28c132,557$36,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,790.4122453.1%119 W · 105 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Thunder71c104,313$73,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,709.8751844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Magic26c90,220$23,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,457.2772648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Thunder75c75,238$56,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,684.2823245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Magic19c70,000$13,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,099.9954539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Magic12c62,508$7,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,701.6123257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Magic29c49,411$14,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,515.8525753.7%138 W · 119 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Magic29c45,555$13,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,210.9587144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Magic26c42,636$11,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,085.4427747.7%132 W · 145 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9514…2d97backed Magic8c41,444$3,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,160.53966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed Thunder73c41,250$30,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,137.55534.5%19 W · 36 L-6.5wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Thunder74c38,926$28,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,138.5614663.7%93 W · 53 L+11.6wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Magic30c37,651$11,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,277.2345850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Magic24c37,572$8,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,841.134,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df6…b212backed Thunder80c34,450$27,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,889.931844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder74c33,198$24,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,673.044,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Magic19c31,579$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0001,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x10d0…a31bbacked Magic26c30,010$7,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,802.584235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-16.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe12a…67efbacked Magic26c30,000$7,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,80015841.1%65 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Magic0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Magic20c24,276$4,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,855.2728649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5330…0bfabacked Thunder79c23,645$18,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,965.4613142.7%56 W · 75 L-8.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ff3…1aa9backed Thunder79c20,000$15,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,20019645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7a6…89b2backed Magic26c20,000$5,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,15014244.4%63 W · 79 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Magic1c19,413$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.365213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Thunder76c18,523$14,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,508.572,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Thunder78c17,202$13,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,735.525,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Magic7c15,369$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.844,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe734…8f6abacked Magic26c15,015$3,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,903.919150.8%97 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Thunder74c15,000$11,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,90028554%154 W · 131 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Thunder73c15,000$10,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,05015247.4%72 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Thunder74c15,000$11,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,90017554.9%96 W · 79 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa996…8aacbacked Magic27c14,999$4,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,049.7314243%61 W · 81 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Magic3c14,047$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.071,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Thunder72c12,831$9,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,557.3171547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14cc…7c02backed Magic28c12,827$3,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,543.8413842.8%59 W · 79 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Magic3c12,674$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.45333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-53.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Magic3c12,564$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.468,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Magic20c12,185$2,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,437.0461851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Thunder73c12,024$8,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,191.872,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked Thunder71c11,960$8,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,468.412843.8%56 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Thunder74c11,942$8,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,104.9248352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Magic28c11,697$3,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,332.7555346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Magic23c11,612$2,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,646.161,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Thunder75c11,383$8,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,845.7634654%187 W · 159 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f8d…4537backed Thunder74c11,375$8,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,971.022080%16 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Thunder74c10,888$8,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,830.8830845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x953c…1aacbacked Magic13c10,736$1,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,367.652339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1e1…f855backed Magic23c10,487$2,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,370.8828742.9%123 W · 164 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Magic5c10,343$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.631,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Thunder71c10,189$7,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,954.836741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dfb…5240backed Magic0c10,020$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.211848.3%57 W · 61 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Thunder73c10,000$7,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,658.3631445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d93…d67abacked Thunder74c10,000$7,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6001376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Thunder74c10,000$7,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,60019751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9534…1fe8backed Magic23c9,642$2,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,200.7726247.7%125 W · 137 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Thunder72c8,651$6,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,394.362,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6e3…6dfebacked Thunder72c8,610$6,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,410.7223052.6%121 W · 109 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Magic22c8,290$1,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,786.13,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd7a5…7c26backed Thunder72c7,500$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,10011653.4%62 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x81f0…cbb1backed Thunder73c7,414$5,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,969.668765.5%57 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c42…da3cbacked Thunder70c7,300$5,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,19014055.7%78 W · 62 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x61a1…6657backed Magic29c7,185$2,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,061.827758.8%163 W · 114 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Thunder73c7,000$5,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,89012657.1%72 W · 54 L+11.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1a43…565fbacked Thunder72c6,944$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,944.445945.8%27 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Thunder76c6,797$5,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,623.721,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Magic20c6,709$1,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,368.031,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe88b…5250backed Thunder80c6,682$5,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,354.22728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick55cpaid-32.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x35bd…1ecfbacked Magic29c6,299$1,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,826.7114945.6%68 W · 81 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Magic29c6,134$1,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,780.611,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Magic29c6,105$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,760.11,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed Magic27c6,008$1,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,608.136950.1%185 W · 184 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Magic0c6,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Magic21c5,940$1,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.452,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Magic0c5,900$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.58820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0aa3…64e9backed Thunder74c5,267$3,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,369.296358.7%37 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f82…9b01backed Thunder71c5,181$3,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,502.3816635.5%59 W · 107 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Magic30c5,092$1,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,538.921,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Magic30c5,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50080146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x626f…cdfabacked Thunder79c5,000$3,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0503565.7%23 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9d…6b37backed Magic20c4,916$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.131233.3%4 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-54.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Thunder70c4,759$3,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,420.9661336.1%221 W · 392 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb876…a86bbacked Magic16c4,736$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.7314344.8%64 W · 79 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Magic23c4,726$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08737747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Thunder71c4,705$3,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,365.5516440.9%67 W · 97 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Thunder74c4,647$3,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,226.0672450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Thunder78c4,615$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.4138253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f07…f1bcbacked Thunder74c4,354$3,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.041346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa051…54ebbacked Thunder70c4,286$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,285.7115435.7%55 W · 99 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Magic29c4,217$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.662,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3260…c210backed Thunder74c4,208$3,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,094.08955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid+54%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e41…a1c1backed Thunder72c4,179$3,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,158.396848.5%33 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Thunder74c4,054$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.0556453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Magic29c4,000$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17019432%62 W · 132 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x410a…2643backed Magic30c4,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2002759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+25.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Magic25c4,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00033945.1%153 W · 186 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa19f…ea87backed Magic0c4,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-78%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Magic24c3,711$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.119,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6771…b783backed Thunder74c3,677$2,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$956.037258.3%42 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.