TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,685
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,020

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,685 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Over49c4,137$2,008 inLost-$2,007.559,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under51c2,157$1,100 inWon+$1,056.861,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05b9…2adfbacked Under52c1,924$1,000 inWon+$923.712051.7%62 W · 58 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Over29c965.66$276 inLost-$276.2483039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad08…67a5backed Under69c869.01$600 inWon+$269.391060%6 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Under51c162.72$83 inWon+$79.734146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over49c140.6$69 inLost-$68.894,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under79c114.64$90 inWon+$24.463,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over29c112.54$33 inLost-$33.158,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Over50c100$50 inLost-$501,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e14…8d33backed Over49c100$49 inLost-$49.122619.2%5 W · 21 L-5.1wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-61.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa924…b1b9backed Under50c100$50 inWon+$5014636.3%53 W · 93 L+16.4wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+58.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under50c86.2$43 inWon+$43.12,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over46c50.26$23 inLost-$23.341,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbed1…1094backed Under52c43.22$22 inWon+$20.815865.5%38 W · 20 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7eaa…3ea5backed Under52c29.08$15 inWon+$14.0822655.3%125 W · 101 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over49c25.38$12 inLost-$12.443,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5b54…ea13backed Under62c20$12 inWon+$7.637959.4%225 W · 154 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.