NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x168eb673fbaed3eecf387f6688886579b432021de0d16207e265e932fdb34590
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 53c | 6,543$3,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,049.77 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Under | 13c | 3,807$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.85 | 353 | 26.6%94 W · 259 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 46c | 2,830$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.82 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 65c | 2,000$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302.42 | 359 | 42.1%151 W · 208 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.58 | 220 | 55%121 W · 99 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 48c | 1,739$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.46 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 1,272$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.27 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 52c | 963$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.39 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 30c | 910.05$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.65 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 800.66$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.92 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Under | 47c | 585.77$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.64 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd4…35b5backed Under | 5c | 550$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 544.22$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.71 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 530.59$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.82 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 8c | 509.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 29c | 507.03$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.26 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 44c | 393.36$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.45 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 47c | 367$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.49 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 32c | 358.64$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.87 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 333.5$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.93 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 49c | 331.22$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.12 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Over | 36c | 275.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.43 | 312 | 49.4%154 W · 158 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 49c | 254.92$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.2 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…1efbbacked Over | 52c | 250$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b45…d196backed Over | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 125 | 40.8%51 W · 74 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 46c | 164.16$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.31 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Over | 52c | 152$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.96 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Under | 54c | 146$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.3 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 127$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.93 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…3a7cbacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 555 | 33.5%186 W · 369 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 58c | 94.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Over | 57c | 87.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 52c | 84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Over | 63c | 83.05$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 248 | 46.8%116 W · 132 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Under | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 51c | 74.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Over | 72c | 69.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 52c | 69.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c28…ff31backed Over | 43c | 59.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.26per pick | 39cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under | 47c | 55.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbafd…b055backed Under | 34c | 50.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 56c | 42.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 56c | 41.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 50c | 40.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfedd…32c4backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 46c | 37.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Over | 52c | 31.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 48c | 29.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Under | 43c | 28.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 146 | 36.3%53 W · 93 L | +16.4wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…620ebacked Over | 53c | 28.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 311 | 55%171 W · 140 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 48c | 26.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -32.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 47c | 25.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x257b…c08bbacked Over | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8557…4e7abacked Under | 57c | 21.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 189 | 57.1%108 W · 81 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…4e91backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…4b74backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…03a7backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c8…b095backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5this page
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Magic vs. ThunderThunder won
- Magic vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5Over won
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 220.5Under won
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5Under won
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Under won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 31.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Tristan da Silva: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.