NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd679b2f905601d91868cceff4711e7d3135d1229e349a84a6d145f1bb1ef9c8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $207,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $207,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $207,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6b6…13acbacked Magic | 52c | 132,402$69,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69,053.06 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Thunder | 48c | 131,167$62,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68,754.89 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…544cbacked Magic | 55c | 27,790$15,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,234.52 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -11.0wins | -0.28per pick | 49cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Thunder | 47c | 12,976$6,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,877.33 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 48c | 11,557$5,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,017.39 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Magic | 52c | 10,248$5,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,328.85 | 277 | 47.7%132 W · 145 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Thunder | 58c | 7,067$4,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,968.14 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Thunder | 56c | 4,000$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760 | 461 | 45.6%210 W · 251 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…67e1backed Thunder | 57c | 3,924$2,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,688.15 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Magic | 54c | 3,190$1,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,722.47 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Thunder | 47c | 2,666$1,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,412.82 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Magic | 45c | 2,500$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5330…0bfabacked Thunder | 53c | 2,447$1,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.98 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Thunder | 48c | 1,681$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Thunder | 47c | 1,572$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.44 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Magic | 53c | 1,338$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.14 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…5c6cbacked Magic | 55c | 1,273$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 266 | 40.2%107 W · 159 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Thunder | 46c | 1,200$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.18 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…1769backed Thunder | 47c | 851.06$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.06 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Magic | 51c | 441.43$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Magic | 51c | 414.5$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.4 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Thunder | 48c | 300$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 37c | 275.82$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.18 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder | 47c | 223.23$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.43 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Magic | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…58bfbacked Thunder | 46c | 168.02$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.73 | 185 | 47%87 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Thunder | 49c | 129.89$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.58 | 927 | 50.6%469 W · 458 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Magic | 54c | 125$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99df…b59abacked Thunder | 48c | 115$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Thunder | 49c | 109.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…fe0abacked Thunder | 47c | 93.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 279 | 43%120 W · 159 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Thunder | 47c | 90.82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Thunder | 46c | 79.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…ae9cbacked Magic | 54c | 76.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce3e…2f24backed Thunder | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 250 | 56.8%142 W · 108 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Thunder | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Thunder | 50c | 69.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Thunder | 58c | 66.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Magic | 43c | 52.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Thunder | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…a497backed Magic | 53c | 48.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Thunder | 47c | 47.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 251 | 43%108 W · 143 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c29…bd99backed Magic | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Thunder | 55c | 42.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 506 | 51.2%259 W · 247 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc27f…12a9backed Magic | 42c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…620ebacked Magic | 53c | 40.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 311 | 55%171 W · 140 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9460…97d5backed Magic | 45c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Thunder | 51c | 36.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 164 | 42.1%69 W · 95 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Thunder | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 470 | 45.1%212 W · 258 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9d…c3eebacked Thunder | 49c | 29.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Magic | 53c | 27.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3a…1440backed Magic | 45c | 25.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13a5…567dbacked Thunder | 49c | 24.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 163 | 50.9%83 W · 80 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Magic | 53c | 20.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)this page
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Magic vs. ThunderThunder won
- Magic vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5Over won
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5Over won
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 220.5Under won
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5Under won
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Under won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 31.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Tristan da Silva: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.