NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00b5249ccd17956ebae797564290204db3584293c3d85cc03df04b77ee940d55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 55c | 2,288$1,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.6 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 1,311$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.05 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb090…f028backed Under | 46c | 1,128$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 1c | 1,016$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 359 | 42.1%151 W · 208 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2e…9e01backed Under | 47c | 744.51$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.55 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +9.7wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 65c | 560$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.8 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 42c | 475.5$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.22 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Over | 55c | 470.94$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.92 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 30c | 422.53$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.77 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 357.88$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 59c | 283.48$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.48 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 42c | 250$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 57c | 248.27$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.2 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 6c | 244.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 188 | 35.1%66 W · 122 L | +24.5wins | +0.13per pick | 22cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Under | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Over | 55c | 181$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.45 | 625 | 39.4%246 W · 379 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Under | 13c | 180$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | +19.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 45c | 179.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.38 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 138.4$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2531…a7c4backed Over | 57c | 108.77$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 47c | 99.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 57c | 85.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 456 | 51.1%233 W · 223 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd913…2cf7backed Over | 63c | 79.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51aa…f9c9backed Over | 57c | 78.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…620ebacked Over | 56c | 68.64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 311 | 55%171 W · 140 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc638…eb19backed Over | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…7071backed Over | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5be6…3117backed Over | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 44c | 57.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…28bdbacked Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd125…f654backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f84…2de8backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 51.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 52c | 45.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0a…a4b8backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…17f0backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7e7bbacked Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1855…f911backed Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab15…272ebacked Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…076abacked Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x592d…644abacked Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Under | 42c | 35.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x834d…5500backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb679…7340backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d4…a6b4backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 56c | 33.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Under | 40c | 31.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 412 | 51%210 W · 202 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 45c | 27.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…1fd6backed Over | 57c | 25.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…84c5backed Over | 55c | 21.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -8.2wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x92c8…b095backed Over | 80c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5this page
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Magic vs. ThunderThunder won
- Magic vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5Over won
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 220.5Under won
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5Under won
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Under won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 31.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Tristan da Silva: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.