NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87312eeff47ed478c6516102357a172c4b8ec074f3a90d62874d115daebd85bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $133,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Magic | 50c | 19,350$9,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,674.87 | 382 | 53.4%204 W · 178 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x869f…7a8bbacked Thunder | 53c | 17,180$9,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,074.67 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Magic | 50c | 15,823$7,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,911.02 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Magic | 51c | 10,294$5,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,230.92 | 346 | 54%187 W · 159 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Thunder | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,699.99 | 354 | 50.8%180 W · 174 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…544cbacked Magic | 50c | 9,341$4,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,713.28 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -11.0wins | -0.28per pick | 49cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…2682backed Thunder | 51c | 7,801$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,800.99 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 50c | 7,799$3,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,915.29 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb66…2f53backed Thunder | 51c | 6,522$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,221.57 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Thunder | 50c | 5,648$2,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,824 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Magic | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder | 50c | 3,411$1,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,697.61 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Thunder | 50c | 3,002$1,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,511.01 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Magic | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 480 | 54.2%260 W · 220 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Magic | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.99 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Thunder | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.98 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Thunder | 50c | 2,929$1,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,464.28 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…5c2fbacked Thunder | 50c | 2,222$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Magic | 47c | 1,947$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.15 | 277 | 47.7%132 W · 145 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Thunder | 50c | 1,715$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.81 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Thunder | 50c | 1,605$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.5 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Magic | 47c | 1,194$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 46c | 1,029$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.32 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Magic | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 409 | 47.7%195 W · 214 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Magic | 50c | 935.56$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.78 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Magic | 48c | 899.27$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.65 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Thunder | 51c | 792$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.62 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Magic | 46c | 770.92$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.84 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Magic | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Magic | 48c | 475.34$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.76 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Thunder | 53c | 439.62$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.62 | 509 | 54.8%279 W · 230 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Thunder | 50c | 357.79$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.56 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Magic | 51c | 274.51$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 400 | 41.5%166 W · 234 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf20f…3b33backed Thunder | 53c | 222$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.34 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cd…61a6backed Thunder | 54c | 217$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.82 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cc…535abacked Magic | 51c | 205.88$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Magic | 46c | 149.03$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Magic | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 451 | 46.1%208 W · 243 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99e…fa3dbacked Thunder | 53c | 94.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11de…4e67backed Magic | 47c | 92.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…fbd1backed Thunder | 53c | 72.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Magic | 46c | 71.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Thunder | 53c | 66.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 628 | 44.9%282 W · 346 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2e…2794backed Thunder | 54c | 66.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Thunder | 51c | 61.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab0…f2d7backed Magic | 49c | 61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e8…72ccbacked Thunder | 54c | 54.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -9.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x66e6…7dc4backed Thunder | 54c | 53.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9073…13b3backed Thunder | 53c | 50.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Magic | 50c | 50.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 336 | 53.9%181 W · 155 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Thunder | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Thunder | 51c | 49.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 506 | 51.2%259 W · 247 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Magic | 52c | 45.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Thunder | 50c | 44.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3526…8b74backed Magic | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d0…0671backed Thunder | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9985…9b14backed Magic | 50c | 39.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76e7…1872backed Thunder | 51c | 34.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e78…70c7backed Magic | 47c | 31.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder | 61c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Thunder | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 470 | 45.1%212 W · 258 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f5…5c6cbacked Magic | 50c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…620ebacked Thunder | 51c | 23.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 311 | 55%171 W · 140 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Thunder | 55c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e5…370fbacked Thunder | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)this page
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Magic vs. ThunderThunder won
- Magic vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5Over won
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5Over won
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 220.5Under won
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5Under won
- Magic vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Under won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 31.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Tristan da Silva: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.