TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Florida Gators (-15.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Florida Gatorsof Florida Gators, LSU Tigers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$592,786
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$593,510

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $592,786 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Florida Gators50c501,938$252,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249,877.2335945.1%162 W · 197 L-24.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked LSU Tigers49c151,593$74,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74,280.3521754.8%119 W · 98 L+15.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked LSU Tigers50c150,000$75,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75,0009050%45 W · 45 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed LSU Tigers50c90,501$45,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,250.6569142.8%296 W · 395 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Florida Gators50c40,088$20,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,043.794047.5%19 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked LSU Tigers50c32,527$16,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,388.0290645.4%411 W · 495 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba81…dc35backed LSU Tigers50c19,380$9,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,6901330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed LSU Tigers51c15,000$7,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,6008946.1%41 W · 48 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed LSU Tigers51c13,818$6,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,979.4819950.3%100 W · 99 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked LSU Tigers50c11,111$5,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,555.513154.2%71 W · 60 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed LSU Tigers50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0006758.2%39 W · 28 L+5.4wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked LSU Tigers52c9,950$5,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,223.75,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Florida Gators50c9,000$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,50010441.3%43 W · 61 L-8.7wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-18.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked LSU Tigers50c5,543$2,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,771.475143.1%22 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked LSU Tigers51c5,457$2,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,790.634,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed LSU Tigers50c5,335$2,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,667.589850%449 W · 449 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked LSU Tigers50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5005843.1%25 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed LSU Tigers49c4,000$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,959.9539744.8%178 W · 219 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed LSU Tigers50c3,954$1,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,977.0774649.2%367 W · 379 L+1.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked LSU Tigers50c3,909$1,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,963.1312,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed LSU Tigers50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50012358.5%72 W · 51 L+10.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked LSU Tigers50c2,936$1,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,468.1616954.4%92 W · 77 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed LSU Tigers50c2,686$1,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,342.98747.1%41 W · 46 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e82…7670backed LSU Tigers51c2,381$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20418650%93 W · 93 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked LSU Tigers50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011555.7%64 W · 51 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked LSU Tigers50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00025556.1%143 W · 112 L+12.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x162f…585abacked Florida Gators50c1,243$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.776445.3%29 W · 35 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed LSU Tigers50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50013851.4%71 W · 67 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc330…1667backed LSU Tigers50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001020%2 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-57.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xef34…86b2backed LSU Tigers60c833.33$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004047.5%19 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed LSU Tigers51c823.53$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42055749.2%274 W · 283 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed LSU Tigers50c800.94$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.479860.2%59 W · 39 L+9.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+23%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Florida Gators48c787.26$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.015,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4f91…40adbacked LSU Tigers50c750$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3754055%22 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed LSU Tigers50c560$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28079448.9%388 W · 406 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed LSU Tigers51c481.54$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.564738.3%18 W · 29 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a45…41f6backed LSU Tigers50c400.6$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011444.7%51 W · 63 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d0f…f3e6backed LSU Tigers49c399.98$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.9911946.2%55 W · 64 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc56b…fe0abacked Florida Gators51c384.73$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.529543.2%41 W · 54 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda12…38d6backed Florida Gators50c339.93$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.542948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed LSU Tigers50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15063551.5%327 W · 308 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d1d…4773backed Florida Gators51c244.12$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.731250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ed…e29fbacked LSU Tigers51c224.96$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.023951.3%20 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c10…829bbacked LSU Tigers50c209$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.51241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fe0…323bbacked LSU Tigers38c201.92$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.926450%32 W · 32 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed LSU Tigers52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1041,07046.9%502 W · 568 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8214…ef72backed LSU Tigers50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed LSU Tigers50c180$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9049849.6%247 W · 251 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bb6…735cbacked Florida Gators50c174.98$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.774344.2%19 W · 24 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0157…340fbacked Florida Gators51c162.58$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.353246.9%15 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed Florida Gators50c160$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807452.7%39 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdc0f…bbfebacked LSU Tigers50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756653%35 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7cf…058dbacked LSU Tigers52c150$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.51520%3 W · 12 L-4.6wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-58.5%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x2eb5…c2adbacked LSU Tigers49c149.99$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.499352.7%49 W · 44 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3951…c5b2backed LSU Tigers52c148.25$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.843240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x03b0…482cbacked LSU Tigers54c141.12$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.024860.4%29 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c3…f427backed LSU Tigers50c129.58$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.792147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1a…26c0backed LSU Tigers50c122.4$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.24645.7%21 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d48…48e0backed LSU Tigers51c121.83$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5818046.7%84 W · 96 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ea3…9439backed LSU Tigers50c115.56$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.781546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0f…68f6backed Florida Gators51c115.17$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.881233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-36.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Florida Gators65c104.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8519050.5%96 W · 94 L+15.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+19.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xadc5…e2afbacked LSU Tigers50c102.41$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.217234.7%25 W · 47 L-9.7wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-26.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbc82…6421backed LSU Tigers50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011147.7%53 W · 58 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e57…2bf6backed LSU Tigers50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed LSU Tigers50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017258.7%101 W · 71 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked LSU Tigers50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015156.3%85 W · 66 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ba5…26febacked LSU Tigers50c98.04$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.025950.8%30 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda75…bbf9backed LSU Tigers51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5023754.9%130 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5960…d692backed LSU Tigers50c98$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493360.6%20 W · 13 L+5.3wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+25.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x187b…f545backed LSU Tigers50c89.92$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9610049%49 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed LSU Tigers50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4062753%332 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ea…066ebacked LSU Tigers50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407957%45 W · 34 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf429…969ebacked LSU Tigers50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405731.6%18 W · 39 L-7.8wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-44%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x319e…de42backed Florida Gators51c78.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.432766.7%18 W · 9 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Florida Gators53c73$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.3317943.6%78 W · 101 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5995…3385backed LSU Tigers50c71.06$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.535151%26 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2694…415abacked Florida Gators51c66.14$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.411540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92bf…0f9bbacked Florida Gators50c64.85$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.124146.3%19 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5a8…8a9dbacked LSU Tigers50c64.44$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.227251.4%37 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8155…eb2cbacked Florida Gators50c62.64$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.143348.5%16 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x740b…1d47backed LSU Tigers65c61.54$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404045%18 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b2…1950backed Florida Gators50c59.02$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.257450%37 W · 37 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5084…40a4backed Florida Gators51c58.28$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.582748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Florida Gators50c58.19$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3297447.9%467 W · 507 L-2.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a93…cb5fbacked LSU Tigers50c57$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd730…1948backed LSU Tigers52c54.95$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5419653.1%104 W · 92 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc27f…12a9backed LSU Tigers51c54$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.457252.8%38 W · 34 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ce8…07f5backed LSU Tigers51c53.72$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.66650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x455b…2d47backed Florida Gators51c53.58$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.351952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Florida Gators50c50.14$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.079945.5%45 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed LSU Tigers51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.589146.2%412 W · 479 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed LSU Tigers50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2545644.5%203 W · 253 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed LSU Tigers54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,16255.2%641 W · 521 L+25.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed85…bfacbacked LSU Tigers51c49.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.267846.2%36 W · 42 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf861…1d14backed LSU Tigers50c48.38$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.196755.2%37 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ab0…f2d7backed LSU Tigers52c48.23$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.962133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-34.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed Florida Gators51c48$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.528547.1%40 W · 45 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e71…e9cbbacked Florida Gators51c46.75$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.91875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+51.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x70b1…73b2backed LSU Tigers53c46.24$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.519151.6%47 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.