South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c4c5d7410028bb2d5b44d41d9a97a4de09214c49c3b51594555867803d1a00c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0cf6…0e3bbacked Yes | 32c | 2,898$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.71 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 34c | 2,494$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.47 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180a…54a6backed Yes | 31c | 2,130$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 30c | 1,731$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.89 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 29c | 1,483$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.79 | 2,519 | 39%982 W · 1,537 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Yes | 30c | 1,178$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 28c | 1,094$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.36 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 1,087$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.34 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 70c | 919.32$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.67 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 70c | 911.46$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.12 | 1,447 | 45.9%664 W · 783 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 32c | 882.35$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.93 | 199 | 63.8%127 W · 72 L | +19.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 71c | 666.13$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.18 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 71c | 665$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.85 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…ba40backed No | 71c | 620.06$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.87 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 67c | 616.61$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.88 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 65c | 469.72$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.5 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 65c | 425.4$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.21 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95a3…cc1bbacked Yes | 49c | 409.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31cb…a34bbacked Yes | 12c | 213.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 74c | 172.46$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 62c | 159$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.54 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 70c | 144.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 134 | 51.5%69 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 69c | 139.84$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.28 | 1,670 | 51.8%865 W · 805 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 72c | 123.5$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 70c | 123.46$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 187 | 33.2%62 W · 125 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4753…41adbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1da…441ebacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb2…e33fbacked Yes | 37c | 95.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 72c | 79.47$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5e…e107backed Yes | 50c | 78.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…eac6backed No | 69c | 72.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 70c | 68.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 429 | 46.2%198 W · 231 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 65c | 65.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 416 | 54.3%226 W · 190 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed No | 74c | 55.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 258 | 66.3%171 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…77dbbacked Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 788 | 56.3%444 W · 344 L | +23.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed No | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 183 | 59%108 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 72c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…e5ebbacked Yes | 29c | 35.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 70c | 32.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 70c | 32.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 422 | 50.2%212 W · 210 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 69c | 31.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 1,945 | 51.3%998 W · 947 L | +40.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked No | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 160 | 51.3%82 W · 78 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 72c | 21.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf508…30a5backed No | 71c | 17.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed No | 72c | 16.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed No | 72c | 16.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 72c | 15.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?this page
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-27?Yes won
- Will Caracas FC win on 2026-05-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.