Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c7935f35cbbf44e59602613a03ec5cd260aa3339530ab7854dd8aab567788dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes | 14c | 608.29$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.25 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 276.45$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 241.71$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 233$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.92 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8b…808ebacked No | 51c | 212.72$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…15a2backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 7.4%6 W · 75 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 190.55$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 174.69$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…0511backed Yes | 65c | 154.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 58c | 150.51$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.82 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 60c | 150.23$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 49c | 144.13$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a94…c0dcbacked Yes | 80c | 137.75$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.88 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 27c | 112$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 27c | 111.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 41c | 105.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 46c | 99.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 15c | 97.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 91.34$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 80c | 90.58$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 35c | 86.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 70.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 70.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 45c | 67.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 60c | 62.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 66c | 60.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked No | 80c | 59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 38c | 58.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked Yes | 47c | 52.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 66c | 51.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…0171backed Yes | 37c | 50.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…7518backed Yes | 24c | 47.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 46.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 79c | 46.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…7f40backed Yes | 37c | 45.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 29c | 44.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 42.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd60…1ae5backed Yes | 80c | 42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 46c | 41.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa159…ac8ebacked No | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 62c | 35.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 29c | 34.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…ddcebacked Yes | 70c | 34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 37c | 33.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d7…a7fdbacked Yes | 45c | 33.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 50c | 30.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 30.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…0ce8backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 42c | 29.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 37c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 61c | 27.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec9…9d4bbacked No | 79c | 26.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 56c | 26.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 69c | 24.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 62c | 23.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 64c | 21.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 61c | 19.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…a4d5backed No | 60c | 19.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 68c | 18.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 62c | 17.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…0490backed Yes | 64c | 17.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C or higher on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.