South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e7fcd5b25b430f3742de0f886eff2176ea9daaee8fce3496f372bdb0749a07f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Club Bolívarof Grêmio FBPA, Club Bolívar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ad7…42aabacked Club Bolívar | 54c | 5,763$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,663.51 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Grêmio FBPA | 41c | 3,377$1,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384.19 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Club Bolívar | 73c | 1,674$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.37 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Grêmio FBPA | 45c | 1,156$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.16 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Club Bolívar | 59c | 1,100$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f3…7e0bbacked Grêmio FBPA | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…6c47backed Club Bolívar | 49c | 990.26$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.03 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Grêmio FBPA | 40c | 975.56$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.29 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6f…1dfebacked Club Bolívar | 57c | 950.57$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.57 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Club Bolívar | 48c | 900$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed Grêmio FBPA | 45c | 646$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.7 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…b594backed Grêmio FBPA | 42c | 600$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75fc…0a4cbacked Grêmio FBPA | 17c | 530.45$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.18 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb797…e779backed Grêmio FBPA | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Grêmio FBPA | 45c | 392$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.01 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Club Bolívar | 50c | 392$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0f…d336backed Grêmio FBPA | 45c | 336.67$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8c…191cbacked Club Bolívar | 56c | 310.71$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.71 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Grêmio FBPA | 45c | 303.42$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.54 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Club Bolívar | 54c | 273.92$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.86 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7636backed Grêmio FBPA | 6c | 270.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Grêmio FBPA | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…5478backed Grêmio FBPA | 46c | 211.25$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.17 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Grêmio FBPA | 15c | 200.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Grêmio FBPA | 47c | 200$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 416 | 54.3%226 W · 190 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Club Bolívar | 58c | 175.86$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.86 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf247…59f9backed Grêmio FBPA | 42c | 173.81$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb7…0acebacked Grêmio FBPA | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Grêmio FBPA | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Grêmio FBPA | 42c | 131.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Club Bolívar | 58c | 129$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 310 | 39.7%123 W · 187 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd629…1e72backed Grêmio FBPA | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Grêmio FBPA | 45c | 97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 307 | 54.7%168 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Grêmio FBPA | 43c | 93.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Grêmio FBPA | 48c | 89.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b3…8b6dbacked Club Bolívar | 60c | 83.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Club Bolívar | 60c | 82.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c31…5380backed Club Bolívar | 49c | 78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 114 | 57%65 W · 49 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Grêmio FBPA | 41c | 72.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Grêmio FBPA | 46c | 69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 296 | 53%157 W · 139 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Club Bolívar | 50c | 68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Grêmio FBPA | 44c | 67.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Grêmio FBPA | 50c | 66.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Club Bolívar | 72c | 61.52$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Grêmio FBPA | 43c | 57.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Club Bolívar | 71c | 56.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x819a…4b03backed Club Bolívar | 59c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Club Bolívar | 70c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Club Bolívar | 55c | 21.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 232 | 53%123 W · 109 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…1ca6backed Grêmio FBPA | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Club Bolívar | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 184 | 46.2%85 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)this page
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar: Club Bolívar 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar: Club Bolívar O/U 1.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar: Club Bolívar O/U 2.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar: Grêmio FBPA O/U 0.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar: Grêmio FBPA O/U 1.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 0.5Over won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 1.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 2.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 3.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 4.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Club Bolívar (-1.5)Grêmio FBPA won
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-2.5)Club Bolívar won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.