South American Leagues · resolved market
Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0316a7625aca83d5a45a0792cad631808465838b441daa12323641db912d5d96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 7,422$4,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,107.5 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 59c | 7,233$4,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,267.23 | 1,442 | 37.6%542 W · 900 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 43c | 4,215$1,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,384.43 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked Over | 58c | 3,245$1,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,882.08 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 27c | 3,099$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.22 | 1,296 | 43%557 W · 739 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 2,978$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,357.9 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 41c | 1,973$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.36 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over | 59c | 1,972$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…2fa1backed Over | 8c | 1,786$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.23 | 108 | 28.7%31 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 49c | 1,636$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.08 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa69…02c1backed Under | 45c | 1,097$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.3 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 1,670 | 51.8%865 W · 805 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5902…59fabacked Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bf…8380backed Under | 41c | 999.95$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.97 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 72c | 981.87$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.66 | 352 | 46.9%165 W · 187 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 35c | 735.68$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…029abacked Over | 75c | 609.81$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf844…ee3cbacked Under | 43c | 559.84$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed Under | 42c | 543.3$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.71 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Over | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Over | 61c | 442.31$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.81 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 41c | 400$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa28a…01c5backed Over | 58c | 333$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…df76backed Under | 69c | 289.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.06 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 60c | 288.65$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.77 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…85b9backed Over | 56c | 246.95$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.29 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -43%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 55c | 246.41$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.78 | 722 | 58.6%423 W · 299 L | +28.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 39c | 239.31$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.84 | 1,945 | 51.3%998 W · 947 L | +40.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 27c | 224$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 59c | 191.84$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.97 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 41c | 182$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.38 | 312 | 40.1%125 W · 187 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 56c | 175.73$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.39 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3309…209dbacked Over | 59c | 148.03$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.34 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 51c | 125.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.51 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 27c | 119.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…8620backed Under | 53c | 117.85$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.91 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Under | 39c | 117.31$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.56 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac86…985bbacked Under | 73c | 116$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 70cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 57c | 112.04$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.86 | 191 | 35.1%67 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 69c | 111.8$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.67 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…8c82backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -45%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 788 | 56.3%444 W · 344 L | +23.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 425 | 62.4%265 W · 160 L | +25.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 73c | 98.44$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf061…2572backed Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b3…8b6dbacked Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 59c | 84.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…ad68backed Over | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…de77backed Over | 47c | 62.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccb9…4718backed Over | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0b…2500backed Over | 52c | 48.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 156 | 25.6%40 W · 116 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 69c | 47.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 145 | 70.3%102 W · 43 L | +22.6wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8f…f96abacked Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Over | 56c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 297 | 52.9%157 W · 140 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…ba39backed Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 184 | 46.2%85 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 41c | 39.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…7bc2backed Over | 59c | 38.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…6163backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 164 | 49.4%81 W · 83 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…b4f7backed Over | 60c | 29.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Under | 41c | 29.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 275 | 49.1%135 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Under | 41c | 29.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 273 | 49.5%135 W · 138 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 80c | 25.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 77c | 21.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 77c | 20.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48fe…825cbacked Over | 59c | 20.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 41cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Under | 80c | 19.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 2.5this page
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar: Club Bolívar 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar: Club Bolívar O/U 1.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar: Club Bolívar O/U 2.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar: Grêmio FBPA O/U 0.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar: Grêmio FBPA O/U 1.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 0.5Over won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 1.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 3.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 4.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Club Bolívar (-1.5)Grêmio FBPA won
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)Club Bolívar won
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-2.5)Club Bolívar won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.