TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,066
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,882

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,066 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes28c2,229$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.1342036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes29c1,107$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.2310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes25c718.08$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.638,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No67c593.42$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.578,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Yes38c458.77$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.3714945.6%68 W · 81 L-9.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No73c404$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.082,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed Yes32c378$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.9689557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5548…9cc6backed Yes29c365.64$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10519757.4%113 W · 84 L+11.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes31c360.9$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.24,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No72c313$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.642,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No73c300$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes38c300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.151,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No69c284.3$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.44,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4e3…5296backed Yes37c273.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No70c271.64$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.041,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes30c257.23$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.9772042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No68c252.29$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.814,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No73c250$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.597152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No65c241.99$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.691,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No63c218.85$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.281,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No70c200.2$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.065,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No61c199.99$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes36c199.96$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.991,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes21c190.02$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6770741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfca8…5795backed Yes34c189.35$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No71c175.41$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2792678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes52c171.65$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.726,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No73c150$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.563255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed Yes34c150$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5177555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3904…539bbacked No75c134.9$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2442762.8%268 W · 159 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No66c133.05$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.074,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes34c133$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.221,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No73c127.4$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.441,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.124,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes33c120$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4012453.2%66 W · 58 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No68c118.84$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.191,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No73c109$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.273,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No70c107.58$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.69,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf035…052abacked Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-34.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5844…5bd4backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes32c92.81$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.71,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No35c80.8$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4443563.9%278 W · 157 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d84…fa13backed Yes32c77.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.08616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4699…695abacked No64c74.59$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5912072.5%87 W · 33 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes64c73.83$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5535264.8%228 W · 124 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x250a…c9adbacked No66c71$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.253360.6%20 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No64c67.6$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.229,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc15…cca6backed Yes35c66$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.126441.3%109 W · 155 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes19c65.76$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.646,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No28c60.42$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.681,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed No64c52.54$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8384930.6%260 W · 589 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes26c51.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.371,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed No73c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.519259.4%114 W · 78 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9269…5731backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.54632.6%15 W · 31 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed No71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.538138.6%147 W · 234 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No65c49.95$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.323,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No61c44.88$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.585049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No70c44.34$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.343,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5c2…6b76backed No70c42.98$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138068.8%55 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick72cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8b6…3b38backed No74c40.78$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7847175.6%356 W · 115 L+2.1wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51b8…2202backed Yes38c38.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.682846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x094a…a9d2backed Yes29c38.07$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.929219.5%57 W · 235 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea25…0447backed Yes40c37.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7410836.1%39 W · 69 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes63c31.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x7e16…7f14backed No63c31.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7522064.5%142 W · 78 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No65c30.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.661,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c9b6backed No73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.19158.2%53 W · 38 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.82,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c29.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.11,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No71c29$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4194066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb546…ca22backed No80c28.08$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7520660.2%124 W · 82 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No73c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.561,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed No64c26.62$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5823941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No67c24.48$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.174,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde0a…004ebacked No69c24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3228368.6%194 W · 89 L-0.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9935…a6b4backed Yes67c22.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+34.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xacac…50fbbacked No77c20.52$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7228360.4%171 W · 112 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a20…89d2backed No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.831766.9%212 W · 105 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.22,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.439768.8%273 W · 124 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.21,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x989e…aa30backed No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.414745.6%67 W · 80 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.680962.1%502 W · 307 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.43,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e3…5897backed No71c19.64$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.728431%26 W · 58 L-20.8wins-0.25per pick56cpaid-52.8%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0x2b95…898abacked No73c19.62$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2630168.8%207 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No65c19.31$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No60c18.1$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.242,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed No68c17.27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6151156.6%289 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xced6…2dc1backed No74c16.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2728068.6%192 W · 88 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe54c…2c69backed No64c15.71$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5925560.8%155 W · 100 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No71c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.42,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.