Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e9b6173f0dd396c2d076a9f067d3d0c7626b6f2ad3630827a308f879a91ed8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 28c | 2,229$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.13 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 1,107$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 718.08$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.63 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 593.42$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 38c | 458.77$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.37 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 404$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.08 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 32c | 378$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.96 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 29c | 365.64$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 31c | 360.9$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 313$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.64 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.15 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 284.3$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 37c | 273.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 70c | 271.64$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.04 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 30c | 257.23$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.97 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 252.29$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.81 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 73c | 250$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 65c | 241.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.69 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 63c | 218.85$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.28 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 200.2$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 199.99$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 36c | 199.96$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 21c | 190.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca8…5795backed Yes | 34c | 189.35$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 71c | 175.41$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 52c | 171.65$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.72 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 75c | 134.9$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 133.05$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 34c | 133$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 73c | 127.4$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 68c | 118.84$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 109$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 107.58$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…052abacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 32c | 92.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 35c | 80.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…fa13backed Yes | 32c | 77.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 64c | 74.59$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 64c | 73.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…c9adbacked No | 66c | 71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 67.6$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 35c | 66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 65.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 28c | 60.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 64c | 52.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 26c | 51.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…5731backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 65c | 49.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 61c | 44.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 44.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 70c | 42.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 74c | 40.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…2202backed Yes | 38c | 38.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 29c | 38.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 40c | 37.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 63c | 31.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 65c | 30.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 71c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 80c | 28.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 64c | 26.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 24.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…a6b4backed Yes | 67c | 22.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 77c | 20.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 71c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 73c | 19.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 19.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 18.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 68c | 17.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 64c | 15.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.